Japan needs strategy to deal with population crisis

An expert study group of the Internal Affairs and Communications Ministry has released an initial report that presents an exhaustive list of challenges Japan faces in 2040 and a policy direction. The panel will put together a final report in June at the earliest. The number of babies born in that year is estimated at 740,000 – a drop to one-third of the number born annually in the first half of the 1970s. Second-generation baby boomers will all reach retirement age, and more than one in three of the population will be 65 or older. The ageing of the population will be accelerated in Tokyo and two other major metropolitan areas, causing a shortage of human resources in the medical and nursing care sectors.
The report sounds the alarm over such a prospect – hitting the nail on the head by describing it as “an unprecedented crisis”.
To overcome the declining birthrate, child-rearing assistance measures such as resolving the issue of children on waiting lists for entering nursery schools must urgently be boosted. However, even if the birthrate does improve, population decline will be unavoidable in the years to come. It is imperative to work out solutions without losing sight of a future crisis.
The Cabinet of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has tackled regional industrial promotion and job creation by putting forth an initiative for regional revitalisation. But there is no denying that the initiative has just been an extension of conventional policies and lacks a long-term perspective.
The study group’s list of future challenges must be used as an opportunity to correct a shortsighted policy approach.
What is important is a strategy aimed at a soft landing by gradually changing social institutions and systems in response to population decline.
There will be no alternative but to cut back administrative services related to daily lives. Abolition and consolidation of elementary and junior high schools will progress, whereas maintenance costs, including for water supply and sewage systems, will rise. The superannuation of such infrastructure facilities as roads, bridges and tunnels – built and expanded during the period of high economic growth – will become serious. Securing personnel for working in local governments, and for the maintenance and renewal of public infrastructure, must be tackled in an organised manner.
The study group calls for boosting cooperation beyond the framework of local governments.
The central government has been pushing for the creation of “core regional urban areas” through cooperation of core regional cities with populations of over 200,000 and their neighbouring municipalities. There are 28 such regional urban areas nationwide. Such projects as interlibrary access, tourism and attraction of enterprises have been jointly promoted.
Getting caught up in the fixed idea that municipalities should provide all services individually will do no good. Reforming systems on the premise of an ever-expanding economy is also indispensable.
Reining in the ballooning medical and nursing care costs, and building a sustainable social security system, is also imperative. The employment system and its practices should be revised while taking into consideration the decline in the working-age population, to make it easier for elderly people and women to work.
The relevant government ministries and agencies as well as municipalities are called on to repeatedly conduct multifaceted studies by utilising the expertise and insight of the private sector.