HUGE POTENTIAL FOR GROWTH IN SUBSCRIBERS

The number of Thai mobile broadband subscribers could grow to 30 million by 2014 if regulatory issues can be sorted out and all mobile operators are allowed to focus on deploying their 3G networks and growing their subscriber base.

 

Nitin Bhat, partner and head of consulting, Frost & Sullivan, said Thailand is still in the low broadband adoption, with less than 20 per cent mobile broadband penetration and less than 10 per cent total broadband penetration. In order to meet the National Broadband Master Plan, total penetration must reach 80 per cent. This assumes that mobile broadband will drive the future penetration, targeted to triple by 2015.

 

“Due to unclear regulatory solution, most operators are currently on plan B based on temporary alliances, eg True and CAT, TOT and its MVNO plan, whilst DTAC seems to be least active in building partnership,” he said.

 

In addition, the market environment tends to be stagnant with little innovation and infrastructure buildup in the last five years, whereas an intensive price war between different providers has been witnessed as they struggle to retain market share.

 

Mobile Internet users should surpass fixed Internet users by 2012. The main reason is due to infrastructure constraints as all the key fixed-line providers – TOT, CAT, TRUE, and TT&T – have been selectively rolling out fibres in only certain regions, with mostly emphasis on business districts.

 

Still catching up with APAC’s trend, Thailand’s smart-phone and tablet users are less than PCs and netbooks, while the data download from mobile is much less than Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia. The high cost of mobile data and lack of speed are assumed to be key constraints.

 

Most still believe that fixed broadband is the way to consume Internet data due to its browsing speed and affordability. (Price is amongst the lowest in this region). Therefore, fixed broadband will remain the most preferred connectivity choice over mobile in the near term until 3G is fully available.

 

“Most traffic in mobile broadband goes to social networking due to its lower bandwidth requirement compared to other applications. At the same time, online gaming is the key driver to overall online media spending, which accounts for more than 50 per cent,” he added.

 

However, Bhat said that four major shifts have been identified – within business model, technology, landscape, and trend.

 

The business model will shift. Mobile platforms are hitting critical mass while new business models are emerging and enterprises will leverage social-networking platform. The number of smart phones and tablet shipments has exceeded desktop and netbook PCs since the last quarter of 2010 globally and, 2011 for Asia Pacific, he said.

 

This is the trend whereas the mass-market campaigns will be flooded starting from 2011 until 2015. About 80 per cent of Internet users will have mobile Internet. Data traffic will double its size nearly every 18 months. Video streaming will be driving mobile data traffic. In addition, the need for bandwidth will grow continuously. Only 2-3 platform-choices will become mass, ie Apple, Andriod, and possibly Windows Mobile. All kinds of content will be transmitted across. Many enterprise-grade solutions for social collaboration will be available. Changing business models and environments will be seen.  Business will closely be at the speed of thought, he added. 

 

There will be a shift in technology. 3G/LTE (long-term evolution) market size will double within 3 years while fixed broadband still continues to grow steadily through connectivity uses.  “Internet of Things” will be levelling up.

 

Although 3G/LTE will have heavy penetration, fixed broadband will keep growing steadily. It will complement the growth of mobile broadband through connecting the first miles that require more advanced bandwidth management than mobile. Internet of Things will further accelerate through rapid commercialisation of enabling technologies, which connect more and more devices, equipment, and gadgets, Bhat said.

 

Opportunity will rise monetarily through early rollout of emerging business model. Advanced technologies are not only changing the pace of infrastructure but also the consumption of data. As data overload tends to trigger some negative side effects, the way the data is retrieved, analysed, and presented will become more advanced and structured. Different analytic tools will help address difficult inquiries, providing analytic reports in areas such as CRM, financial, as well as predictive analytics such as trend, production planning, etc, he added.

 

In landscape, a new battleground will be created with changing value-chain structure, while service providers and telcos are stepping into different transformation programmes. This year, the disintegration of the cloud value chain will be replaced by fewer numbers of end-to-end cloud players. Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) will be the key dominant, swiping Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) market while converging with Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS) to become everything-as-a-Service (XaaS) and facing other challenges in security and transportability.  Service providers and telecom operators are also starting to feel the heat while trying to keep up with the pace.

 

Together with these changes, there has been revenue growth pressure amongst them. Therefore, various transformation programmes are being practised, such as business (product and service) transformation, network transformation, customer management transformation, and finally organisational transformation, he said.

 

Finally, the small is big. Declining telecom cost with improved infrastructure, therefore capital expenditure is shifting to operating expenditure. IT is being mass consumerised while a new type of work force (Gen Y) has been fashioned by the cloud.

 

As technology improves, new product concepts are continuously introduced in the market, eg metamorphosis of networks or “Small is Big” including small cells, Mi-fi devices, and Femtos. The adoption of such concepts tends to alter the lifestyle as more people seek convenience through connectivity. Through collaborative communications, there will be a consumerisation of IT as the number of users increase through content sharing, whereas cloud communication will generate more Gen-Y workforce. The important trend is also globalisation, ie businesses have to keep up with competitors around the world, not just locally. ICT and telecom providers will keep gaining momentum as one is moving beyond the wall to step into another’s territory and competing to drive growth, value and margin. The four key pillars to enable the move are co-create, co-market, co-deliver, and co-exist, Bhat said.