“Airport Stocks” and challenge of attracting returning tourists

Thailand’s tourism sector is facing a challenging period, with concerns arising from the second-quarter figures showing a decline in the number of international tourists, particularly from China. 

Domestic tourists have also reduced their spending due to the global economic downturn, geopolitical tensions, and fears of war, which have contributed to rising oil prices — a key travel cost. 

As a result, forecasts of tourist numbers reaching 40 million this year have become increasingly difficult to achieve.

Kasikorn Research Centre (KResearch) has forecast a total of 34.5 million tourists for 2025, a 2.8% decline from the previous year. The goal of returning to pre-Covid levels of nearly 40 million tourists now seems even more challenging. 

However, tourism still plays a significant role, with net tourism revenue expected to remain positive, though its contribution to the economy may decrease due to several factors:

• Intense competition in the international market for inbound tourism to Thailand
• Continued outbound travel by Thai citizens
• While domestic tourism continues, Thais are becoming more cautious with their spending

This situation directly affects the “airport business outlook in Thailand for 2025.” According to KResearch, the overall revenue from airport businesses in Thailand is expected to be around 80.7 billion baht, showing a slight increase of 0.2% from 2024, despite the high challenges faced by the airport industry.

Airport business revenue can be divided into two main categories:

• Aeronautical Revenue: This includes passenger service charges for both international and domestic flights, and airport service fees.
• Non-Aeronautical Revenue: This includes income from rent, concessions, and other services such as utilities, check-in counters, and internal airport services.

The revenue structure of airport businesses varies depending on the size of the airport. For smaller airports, more than 80% of the revenue comes from aeronautical services, while for larger airports, the revenue from both aeronautical and non-aeronautical services is roughly balanced.

In 2025, the airport industry faces significant challenges, which will impact the growth of airport business revenues in Thailand. The key factors influencing airport revenues include:

Aeronautical Revenue: This segment is expected to show a slight positive trend, supported by:

Passenger Traffic: The number of passengers (both domestic and international) using airports in Thailand is projected to reach approximately 145.4 million, a 3.4% increase, though slower compared to the 15% growth in 2024. The rise in passengers is primarily driven by domestic and international tourism, as well as business travel. However, the decline in foreign tourists visiting Thailand in 2025, expected to drop by 2.8% from the previous year, will directly affect revenue from international outbound passenger service charges.

International Flight Volumes: International flight traffic is expected to increase. According to airlines' schedules, international flights to Thailand are mostly growing, except for North America, which has seen a reduction due to the tourism season. The future of the airport business will largely depend on government policies to attract foreign investments and tourists.

Additionally, the growing demand for international travel can be seen in the airlines' future flight plans, which cater to the rising interest in new destinations. For instance, international flights to China are expected to grow by 18% (comparing the first nine months of 2025 to the same period in 2024), and flights to Japan by 16%. In contrast, flights to Thailand have only increased by 8%.