NESDC revises 2025 GDP growth to 2%, Q2 expands 2.8%

Danucha Pichayanan, Secretary-General of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), released on Monday (August 18) Thailand’s economic performance for the second quarter of 2025 and the updated outlook for the year.

He said the Thai economy expanded by 2.8% year-on-year in Q2, 2025, slowing from 3.2% growth in Q1. The main factor was a slowdown in non-agricultural production, particularly in tourism-related services, while agricultural production continued to grow.

On the expenditure side, private final consumption and government final consumption slowed, while exports of goods and services maintained growth. Gross fixed capital formation and imports of goods and services both accelerated. For the first half of 2025 overall, GDP expanded by 3%.

Trade performance

Merchandise exports were valued at US$84.17 billion, rising for the fifth consecutive quarter, up 15% year-on-year. This was driven by accelerated shipments ahead of the expiry of the US reciprocal tariff suspension. The export volume index rose strongly by 14.5%, led by higher exports of industrial goods, consistent with sustained demand for electronics.

Economic stability indicators

Unemployment stood at 0.91%, slightly higher than 0.89% in the previous quarter but below 1.07% in the same quarter last year.

Headline inflation turned negative for the first time in five quarters at -0.3%, while core inflation averaged 1%.

The current account recorded a US$0.6 billion surplus (17.1 billion baht).

International reserves at the end of June 2025 stood at US$262.4 billion.

Public debt at the end of June totalled 12.07 trillion baht, equivalent to 64.2% of GDP.

Revised outlook for 2025

The NESDC revised its growth forecast for 2025 upward from the previous range of 1.3–2.3% (median 1.8%) to 1.8–2.3% (median 2.0%), compared with 2.5% growth in 2024. Inflation for the year is projected at 0.0–0.5%, while the current account surplus is expected to reach 2.1% of GDP.

NESDC outlines key policy priorities for the remainder of 2025

The NESDC recommended that macroeconomic policy management for the rest of 2025 should focus on the following priorities:

• Mitigating trade barriers: Address the impact of US trade protection measures and retaliatory actions by key trading partners.
• Stimulating private investment: Accelerate measures to drive domestic private sector investment.
• Supporting tourism and related services: Enhance recovery momentum in the tourism sector and its connected industries.
• Financial assistance for businesses: Provide liquidity support for enterprises, particularly SMEs facing difficulties in accessing credit and further affected by trade restrictions.
• Speeding up budget disbursement: Expedite government spending to inject funds into the economy more quickly.
• Agricultural support: Ensure stable agricultural production and protect farmers’ incomes.