S&P affirms Thailand’s BBB+ sovereign rating with stable outlook
Thailand’s credit rating is supported by expected growth driven by public investment, a resilient tourism sector and strong external finances.
- S&P Global Ratings reaffirmed Thailand's sovereign credit rating at BBB+ with a Stable Outlook, citing stable economic prospects and strong external finances.
- The rating is supported by the government's commitment to long-term investment, particularly in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) and major infrastructure projects, which are seen as key growth drivers.
- Thailand's external financial position is a key strength, underpinned by high foreign reserves, a projected current account surplus, and a strong net international investment position.
- S&P noted the government's fiscal measures and the new Medium-Term Fiscal Framework, which aim to ensure fiscal discipline and support economic recovery and stability.
Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas announced on Thursday (November 14) that S&P Global Ratings has reaffirmed Thailand’s BBB+ sovereign credit rating with a Stable Outlook. The assessment highlights stable economic prospects, strong external finances and the government’s continued commitment to long-term investment.
S&P forecasts Thai economic growth at 2.3% this year
S&P expects the Thai economy to grow 2.3% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026, supported by the government’s fiscal measures aimed at sustaining the recovery amid global uncertainties and domestic political risks.
Real GDP growth for 2025–2028 is projected to average 2.3%, while income per capita is expected to rise from US$8,000 to around US$9,000 in 2025, partly due to a stronger baht.
Government investment and EEC projects seen as key drivers
According to S&P, Thailand continues to prioritise investment under the National Strategic Plan, particularly in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) and major transport infrastructure. Public investment has shown strong momentum since the second half of 2024 and is expected to remain a major growth engine.
The agency also highlighted the importance of state-enterprise investment and public–private partnerships (PPPs) in advancing national infrastructure while easing the fiscal burden on the government. Consistent investment in these projects is seen as crucial to strengthening Thailand’s competitiveness over the long term.
Although international visitor arrivals between January and September 2025 totalled 24.1 million, down 7.6% year-on-year, S&P maintains that tourism will remain a key driver of economic growth in 2026. Government programmes to enhance tourist safety, protection and privileges are expected to support the sector’s continued recovery.
External finances remain Thailand’s key strength
S&P forecasts that net general government debt-to-GDP will rise by an average of 3% in 2025–2026 due to continued expansionary fiscal policies, including support measures for exporters and businesses facing global uncertainty, as well as the Let’s Go Halves Plus consumption stimulus.
Despite this, Thailand’s external position remains strong. The country is expected to maintain an average current account surplus of 2.5% of GDP between 2025 and 2028.
Thailand’s net international investment position stands at around 27% of current-account payment obligations, and the country continues to maintain a high level of foreign reserves—key factors underpinning the stability of its external finances.
S&P to track Thailand’s economic performance against peer countries
S&P said key factors in its future assessments of Thailand’s sovereign rating include the country’s economic growth relative to nations with similar income levels, income per capita, and the pace at which Thailand moves toward fiscal consolidation.
The agency also emphasised the importance of domestic political stability, which directly affects the continuity and effectiveness of economic policymaking.
Ekniti said the results of S&P’s latest rating review reflect confidence in the government’s economic direction, grounded in responsibility, transparency and strict fiscal discipline. This is being implemented through the government’s “Quick Big Win” agenda, built on five pillars: stimulating the economy, easing the financial burden on households, supporting SMEs, boosting public savings, and investing for the future.
A series of measures under these pillars have already been rolled out, including Let’s Go Halves Plus, Travel Thailand Cashback, accelerated disbursement of public investment projects, and the Close Debt Fast, Move On scheme. All five pillars rest on a core foundation: maintaining national fiscal stability.
Medium-Term Fiscal Framework focuses on clarity, discipline and transparency
Thailand continues to maintain strong external financial stability, with high international reserves, low external debt and a sound commercial banking sector. The government has also introduced a Medium-Term Fiscal Framework (MTFF) anchored on three strategic directions:
- Clear and concrete fiscal management guidelines, covering revenue, expenditure and debt.
- Strengthened fiscal rules and greater transparency, including clearer disclosure of fiscal costs and revenue losses from tax incentives, to enhance the enforcement of fiscal discipline.
- Guidelines for supervising quasi-fiscal measures under Section 28 of the Fiscal Responsibility Act, ensuring clearer oversight of contingent fiscal obligations.
Ekniti said the MTFF aims to bolster confidence among credit rating agencies and the public while providing a long-term foundation for a stable and sustainable national economy.
