CAAT sees positive 2026 aviation outlook as Chinese tourists rebound to 75%
Regulator points to steady gains since late 2025, with Oceania and Central Asia adding fresh momentum to recovery.
- The Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand (CAAT) projects a positive outlook for the nation's aviation industry in 2026.
- This optimism is primarily driven by the significant rebound of Chinese passenger traffic, a key market for Thailand.
- Based on recent peak season data, Chinese passenger volumes have recovered to approximately 75% of their pre-COVID levels.
ACM Manat Chavanaprayoon, Director General of the Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand (CAAT), has outlined Thailand’s aviation outlook for 2025, saying the global industry continued to face heavy external pressures, from international conflicts and geopolitical tensions to airspace restrictions linked to disputes in several regions, including Pakistan–India, Israel–Iran, and Russia–Ukraine.
He also cited an ongoing global shortage of aircraft.
Despite these headwinds, Thailand’s aviation sector still showed strong adaptability and resilience.
CAAT compiled and compared data across three key periods: 2019 as the pre-COVID baseline, 2024 during the recovery phase, and 2025 as the current year, finding continued growth and improved efficiency even as the global context shifted rapidly.
Passenger traffic across all airports
CAAT’s analysis of total passenger traffic nationwide showed:
2019: 161.81 million passengers
- Domestic: 73 million
- International: 88 million
2024: 140.60 million passengers
- Domestic: 63 million
- International: 77 million
2025: 145.10 million passengers
- Domestic: 67 million
- International: 78 million
Overall passenger numbers in 2025 rose by more than 4.9 million, or 3.54%, from the previous year.
While Chinese passenger volumes fell sharply, keeping the overall total below the 2019 level, growth in new markets in Central Asia, the Middle East, and long-haul routes helped offset the decline, supporting both revenue and the industry’s growth structure.
Network expansion and fast-growing markets
CAAT said 2025 was also a clear year of network expansion, with new routes opened to fast-growing destinations, including:
- Oceania (especially Australia): Passenger numbers reached 1.77 million, significantly higher than both 2019 and 2024. New direct routes also helped link Thailand with Pacific island destinations, creating opportunities to strengthen Thailand’s gateway role to the region.
- Central Asia: Emerging as a standout market, with Kazakhstan exceeding 320,000 passengers, up 330% from roughly 74,000 in 2019, boosting activity at major tourist airports such as Phuket and Krabi throughout the year.
- India and Russia: Remaining core markets. India expanded into new secondary-city routes, pushing total passengers to 5.95 million, above the pre-COVID level of 4.85 million in 2019. Russia recorded 4.22 million passengers.
Flights, fleet constraints, and higher efficiency
Total flights in 2025 were about 935,000, below the more than 1 million flights in 2019.
However, the passenger-per-flight ratio increased, reflecting improved operational efficiency.
For Thai Airlines, available aircraft stood at 238, or 86% of the 276 aircraft recorded in 2019.
Even so, they were able to carry 92% of domestic passengers compared with 2019.
Rising role of regional airports
Regional airports continued to gain importance.
Samui Airport handled 3.02 million passengers in 2025, up 24% from 2019, while Krabi Airport recorded 3.07 million passengers, exceeding its pre-COVID level, signalling a broader spread of air connectivity into the provinces.
Air cargo growth
Thailand’s air cargo volume in 2025 reached 1.65 million tonnes, up from 1.52 million tonnes the year before and above the pre-COVID level of 1.48 million tonnes.
CAAT said there remains room to further develop air cargo capacity, and it will work with relevant agencies to strengthen this capability as an important driver of Thailand’s economy going forward.
Outlook for 2026
Looking ahead to 2026, CAAT expects Thailand’s aviation industry to place greater emphasis on reducing environmental impacts.
Based on data from late 2025 and early 2026, the peak tourism season, passenger volumes have continued to rise, with Chinese passengers returning to around 75% of the pre-COVID level, which CAAT views as a positive signal for the next phase of recovery.
