Thailand rolls out energy crisis plan: export curb, alternative supplies

Oil prices have swung since fighting began on February 28, 2026 and Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz; Thailand says it has 61 days of fuel and is activating measures to stabilise supply and prices.

Thailand has initiated an emergency energy plan due to the Israel-Iran conflict, which has caused the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for 20% of the world's oil supply.
As a primary measure, the government has ordered the suspension of petroleum exports to bolster domestic reserves, which currently stand at 61 days' worth of supply.
The plan involves securing alternative fuel supplies and increasing domestic natural gas production from the Gulf of Thailand and Myanmar.
To manage the crisis, Thailand will also use its Oil Fuel Fund to subsidize prices, postpone maintenance at gas fields, and operate coal and hydropower plants at full capacity.

The conflict between Israel and Iran, which began on February 28, 2026, and is expected to continue, has caused oil-price volatility.

Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil-shipping route, affecting supply equivalent to 20% of global demand.

At present, Thailand has four crude-oil import shipping routes:

Upstream source: Middle East (United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait), via the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, the Arabian Sea, the Strait of Malacca, and the Gulf of Thailand.
Upstream source: Far East (Australia and New Zealand), shipped via the South China Sea and the Gulf of Thailand.
Upstream source: United States, Brazil, Panama, Nigeria, Gabon, Angola and Congo, shipped via the Cape of Good Hope to the Strait of Malacca and the Gulf of Thailand.
Upstream source: Libya and Sudan, shipped via the Suez Canal, the Red Sea, the Strait of Malacca, and the Gulf of Thailand.

Auttapol Rerkpiboon, Minister of Energy, said he had issued urgent instructions to begin measures to suspend petroleum exports, as follows.

Open an energy emergency monitoring centre to track developments, and instruct all agencies to assess impacts and prepare plans and measures covering reserve volumes and prices.
Prepare to use Oil Fuel Fund measures to subsidise oil prices, easing impacts on product prices and the public cost of living arising from higher global oil prices.
Instruct the Department of Mineral Fuels to draft a plan to increase natural-gas production in the Gulf of Thailand, and postpone scheduled maintenance at natural-gas production fields to reduce impacts during this period.
Order coal-fired power plants to operate at full capacity, along with hydropower plants.
Prepare short-term and long-term plans and measures if the situation drags on, including readiness to use Oil Fuel Fund measures to subsidise oil prices if global prices rise further.

Preparing plans to source oil and gas from other suppliers

Veerapat Kiatfuengfoo, Deputy Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Energy and spokesperson for the ministry, said the Ministry of Energy is closely monitoring the Israel–Iran situation and is planning for a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz by preparing to source fuel from other suppliers.

While there has not yet been any impact on reserve volumes or prices, scenarios have already been prepared.

The Department of Energy Business and the Energy Policy and Planning Office are assessing energy security, urgently checking oil stock volumes, and monitoring oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.

The Middle East is a key source of Thailand’s imported liquefied natural gas (LNG), using the route through the Strait of Hormuz.

The Ministry of Energy is monitoring four LNG deliveries scheduled for March 2026.

Two vessels have already passed through the Strait of Hormuz, while the other two are in transit, but reserve volumes are not expected to be affected.

“If the situation is prolonged or escalates, we will manage it to maintain stable reserve volumes to ensure security and confidence at home,” Mr Veerapat said.

Confirms 61 days of oil and gas reserves

Domestic reserves of oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and LNG must be sufficient to meet demand. As of February 23, 2026, volumes were as follows:

Remaining oil (crude oil and refined products): 4,925 million litres, sufficient for 38 days.
Crude oil in transit (already through the Strait of Hormuz): 1,746 million litres, plus 1,124 million litres from other sources, sufficient for 23 days.

In total, oil reserves amount to 7,795 million litres, sufficient for 61 days.

“The most important condition is that the situation must not widen or draw in additional countries, as that would increase risks to energy stability and the global economy going forward.”

More gas from the Gulf of Thailand and Myanmar

Sources at the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) said the ERC meeting on February 25, 2026, prepared approaches to cope with emergencies such as a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, or an inability to receive LNG from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, as follows:

Increase pipeline natural-gas procurement from the Gulf of Thailand, the JDA, and Myanmar, managing additional gas volumes under contract flexibility (Swing Gas) to full potential.
Secure additional term LNG from existing partners, including spot LNG, by having shippers urgently consult partners to prepare for emergencies.
Secure additional spot LNG to replace volumes that may be disrupted, and discuss other supporting measures as needed. Coordination has been made with the power-system control centre of the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) and PTT Public Company Limited to check power-plant oil reserves, oil demand, and delivery capability, to support plant operations if required.

Diesel feared breaching $100

A source at the Ministry of Energy said the situation has driven a rapid surge in global oil prices, with diesel potentially exceeding $100 per barrel, after closing at $92 per barrel on February 28, 2026.

“The rising trend in global oil prices will inevitably affect retail prices in Thailand, as they must follow global market mechanisms.

It will also worsen the global economy through higher energy costs and higher prices for goods.”

The source assessed that on March 2, 2026, domestic retail prices may not yet rise because they reference Friday’s global market price on February 27, 2026.

Meanwhile, Tuesday, March 3, 2026, is a public holiday, so an immediate adjustment is unlikely.

“Wednesday, March 4, is a risk point to watch closely.

If the situation does not ease, domestic oil prices may rise sharply in line with global markets.

Thailand is fortunate that the incident occurred on a Saturday, giving time to assess the situation.”

“Hormuz” is a key strategic chokepoint

Praipol Koomsup, former dean of the Faculty of Economics at Thammasat University and an independent energy scholar, told Bangkokbiznews that the shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important sea lanes for oil and natural gas.

If it is blocked or affected by attacks, the global oil supply would immediately decline.

Thailand relies on crude oil and natural gas for as much as one-third of its energy use combined, and these supplies must be shipped via this route. Even a short disruption would affect Thailand’s energy security.

There are also early signs of logistics impacts, including a significant rise in shipping insurance premiums, and some insurers beginning to limit cover in high-risk areas, raising transportation costs.

Global crude prices have already begun responding to geopolitical risk. In February, prices rose from $60 per barrel to $70 per barrel, and if the situation is prolonged, $80 per barrel is possible at a minimum.

“What is worrying is that if just one key route is closed for 1–2 weeks, crude oil prices could jump to $100 per barrel immediately.”

High oil prices push up electricity bills and living costs

Mr Praipol estimated that every $10 increase in crude oil prices would raise Thailand’s retail oil prices by 2 baht per litre, affecting transport costs, consumer goods prices and inflation.

Imported LNG prices for power generation also tend to rise in line with oil, meaning electricity tariffs could increase in the next round if energy prices remain elevated.

“The impact will not be limited to pump prices, but will spread to electricity bills, transport costs, and the prices of almost all goods.”

Praipol suggested the government and the Ministry of Energy should urgently review Thailand’s national energy reserve plan, both in terms of strategic oil reserve volumes and emergency management plans.

Shipping through Hormuz comes to a halt

Bloomberg reported that the widening conflict in the Middle East is likely to cause the biggest upheaval in the “natural gas market” since Russia invaded Ukraine four years ago, which reshaped global energy trade.

Iran’s neighbour Qatar is one of the world’s key exporters, and the region is a critical energy shipping corridor.

About 20% of global LNG exports must pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a major bottleneck in the global energy system, while Qatar exported 82.2 million tonnes of LNG in 2025.

Ship-tracking data on March 1, 2026, showed LNG shipments through this strait had almost ground to a halt.

Asian buyers, who import about one quarter of their LNG from Qatar, contacted suppliers to ask whether replacement supply was available.

Egypt is also trying to accelerate gas receipts after Israel, an exporter, shut down some production fields.