Thai tourism faces severe volatility as Middle East conflict hits long-haul travel
Airfares on European long-haul routes have surged, and Thailand could lose at least 300,000 foreign visitors in March if the Middle East conflict drags on.
- The Middle East conflict has disrupted flights and closed airspace, causing airfares on long-haul routes, particularly from Europe, to nearly double.
- Thailand's tourism council projects a potential loss of at least 300,000 foreign tourists in a single month if the situation continues, primarily affecting arrivals from Europe and the Middle East.
- To compensate for the decline in long-haul travel, the tourism strategy is being adjusted to focus more on short-haul markets like India, Malaysia, and Australia.
- Tourism operators are requesting government assistance, such as tax cuts and financial support, to cope with the crisis and rising business costs.
Chai Arunanondchai, President of the Tourism Council of Thailand (TCT), said that after one week of fighting in the Middle East, Thailand’s tourism sector had been directly affected and was facing severe volatility, both in terms of travel costs and tourist numbers.
The conflict in the Middle East has had a major impact on airlines, particularly flights from Europe that require transit stops and plane changes in several cities, such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates and Doha in Qatar, which serve as aviation hubs.
However, services have had to be cancelled under airspace closure measures, causing airfares on long-haul routes, especially Europe-bound services, to rise by almost 100%.
“If the situation drags on for one month, TCT expects foreign tourist arrivals to decline by no fewer than 300,000 in March alone, particularly from the Middle East and Europe, with nearly THB300 billion in lost revenue.”
TCT also forecasts that Thailand will receive 33 million foreign tourists in 2026, close to the 2025 level and short of the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT)’s target of 36.7 million.
To sustain foreign tourist numbers, the strategy must be adjusted to focus more aggressively on promising short-haul markets such as India, Malaysia, Singapore, Japan and Australia, in order to offset the slowdown in Europe and the Middle East.
“Thailand’s tourism sector has had to endure severe volatility after the conflict in the Middle East escalated. Personally, I think Thai tourism in 2026 is somewhat similar to the phrase ‘Feel All the Feelings’, the tagline of the marketing communications campaign featuring Lalisa ‘Lisa’ Manobal as the Amazing Thailand Ambassador, because the situation has changed dramatically. Things had looked positive during the first two months of the year. Chinese tourists, our key market, whose genuine recovery had long been in question, have now started returning to Thailand in greater numbers. But at present, the sector has to confront the unexpected crisis of the Iran conflict, which is affecting long-haul tourist markets.”
However, there is still a positive aspect, as affluent foreign visitors, particularly from Israel and the Middle East, have begun seeking refuge from the war by staying in Thailand for the longer term and investing more in property, such as villas, in Koh Samui and Phuket.
Chai added that tourism operators wanted to ask the government for assistance by considering tax cuts and helping to stabilise energy prices to reduce business costs. They also want commercial banks to ease interest rate conditions to support operators through measures such as low-interest loans, as the crisis stems from external factors beyond the control of tourism businesses.
