One of the criteria that has been widely criticized is that only those who have no income or insufficient income to meet their basic needs, as determined by the National Elderly Council under the Elderly Act, will be eligible for the allowance. This implies that the allowance will no longer be universal.
Based on statistics from the Department of Provincial Administration, there are currently over 900,000 Thais who are 59 years old. The number of people turning 60 and becoming eligible for the allowance will continue to increase every year from now for the next 20 years, before gradually declining. Suppose that the poverty threshold that is similar to that of the Welfare Card is implemented, which means that 1 in 3 of the elderly are considered poor, then over 600,000 out of the 900,000 people who will turn 60 this year will no longer be eligible for the allowance. If the eligibility criteria do not reflect the actual level of poverty, then there will be a number of elderly people who have insufficient income but do not receive any assistance, exacerbating the elderly crisis.
The issue of the elderly allowance is complex and susceptible. If it is seen as a basic right that all citizens should attain, then it should not be removed. However, if it is seen as a form of poverty aid, then it can be considered as one of the many measures that can be used to assist the poor elderly. Policy assistance can be provided on both sides of the equation: increasing income (including the elderly allowance) and reducing expenses (such as subsidizing utilities fees), so that the net income is sufficient to live on. In the author's opinion, the worrying aspect of most policy adjustments is that they are often piecemeal and do not take a comprehensive approach of the big picture. Regardless of the method, the elderly should have the right to live a happy and fulfilling life in accordance with their basic rights.
Considering the basic rights under the Constitution, Article 48 states that "..persons who are over 60 years of age and have no sufficient income to live on and persons who are poor shall have the right to receive appropriate assistance from the government..." If the government decides to adopt the criterion of "must be poor," then it may not address the important issue of how to ensure that a large number of people who may not meet the criteria will have sufficient income to cover their expenses. Therefore, before implementing the new regulations, the government must be able to explain and prove that other forms of assistance, in aggregate, can lead to a sufficient living standard in accordance with basic rights. Additionally, if the government's criteria do not match the public's understanding of what constitutes insufficient income, then they may not be in line with the objectives of the Constitution.
One of the main reasons the government has provided for the criteria change is budgetary constraints due to expected increases in spending as the number of elderly people increases. Under the previous criteria, the government would have to pay a total of approximately 110 billion baht for over 11 million elderly people (an average of approximately 800 baht per person per month). However, in comparison, there are about 0.8 million civil servants who receive a pension, which costs over 300 billion baht per year (an average of over 30,000 baht per person per month). This is expected to increase to over 400 billion baht in five years. If the government can support the latter group of population, then it should also be able to accommodate the 11 million people using less budget. This would help to reduce inequality and address concerns about the government's partiality in providing different levels of care for civil servants, who formulate policy, and the general public, who pay taxes.
At this time, the author believes that the new regulations should not be implemented until the appropriate criteria are in place and are accepted by the public. This would help to avoid accelerating the elderly crisis and reinforcing inequality in taking care of the Thai people in different sectors.
Euamporn Phijaisanit, PhD, is Professor of Economics at Faculty of Economics, Thammasat University