Thailand ranks third globally as 30°C-plus days rise by 75, threatening coffee
Climate Central report warns intensifying heat is stressing coffee trees, cutting yields and quality, and adding pressure to prices worldwide.
- Thailand now ranks third globally for the increase in days harmful to coffee production, with an additional 75 days per year where temperatures exceed 30°C.
- Temperatures above 30°C are critical because they cause stress to coffee plants, which harms growth, reduces yields, lowers bean quality, and increases vulnerability to disease.
- The ranking places Thailand behind El Salvador (+99 days) and Nicaragua (+77 days) as part of a global trend where coffee-growing nations are experiencing an average of 47 more heat-harming days annually.
- The rise in extreme heat threatens the future of coffee, with experts warning that suitable land for growing the crop could be reduced by as much as 50% by 2050.
The heat crisis is having worldwide impacts, particularly in coffee-growing countries, which are facing an average increase of 47 “coffee-harming heat days” per year as a direct result of human-caused climate change, raising the risk that coffee may no longer be viable to grow in some places.
A report by Climate Central, a climate research and reporting organisation, said coffee plants, especially arabica, begin to experience stress when temperatures rise above 30°C.
Heat at this level directly harms growth, reduces yields, lowers bean quality, and makes coffee trees more vulnerable to diseases and insect pests, an issue that is now spreading across the globe.
The 10 countries seeing the biggest increases in days of heat harmful to coffee are:
- El Salvador — up 99 days
- Nicaragua — up 77 days
- Thailand — up 75 days
- Indonesia — up 73 days
- Côte d’Ivoire — up 72 days
- The Philippines — up 71 days
- Brazil — up 70 days
- Jamaica — up 66 days
- Vietnam — up 59 days
- Honduras — up 58 days
Among the world’s top five coffee producers, Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia and Indonesia, which together account for 75% of global production, all are now facing an average increase of 57 days per year with temperatures above 30°C that are harmful to coffee.
Lily Peck, an evolutionary biologist at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), explained that excessive heat forces coffee trees to divert energy away from producing fruit and towards trying to cool themselves to survive, much like humans sweating to regulate body temperature.
This reallocation of resources can result in smaller beans that are harder to roast properly and can lose their original flavour.
Chalo Fernandez, a farmer from a Colombian coffee family with more than 100 years of history, described how conditions have changed.
In his grandfather’s time, the weather could be predicted by looking at the mountain peaks, but that is no longer possible.
He now faces a brutal cycle: intense heat that dries out and kills coffee blossoms, followed by weeks of heavy rain that trigger fungal outbreaks.
Three years ago, his farm lost more than half its crop due to extreme and unpredictable weather.
The problem does not stop at heat.
It also includes the spread of the Coffee Berry Borer, which is expanding into higher elevations as temperatures rise.
Meanwhile, shifting rainfall patterns make crop planning increasingly difficult.
Smallholder farmers, who produce up to 80% of the world’s coffee, are being pushed into an impasse because many lack the financial resources to adapt to a changing climate.
Data show that in 2021, smallholder farmers received climate-adaptation support equal to just 0.36% of total needs.
Yet the cost of improving a one-hectare coffee farm to be more heat-resilient can be less than the price of a single cup of coffee in a developed country.
Without support, many farmers may be forced to abandon the livelihood they love.
Dejene Dadi, general manager of the Oromia Coffee Farmers Cooperatives Union (OCFCU) in Ethiopia, the birthplace of coffee, said farmers there are already feeling the impact clearly.
Ethiopian arabica is highly sensitive to direct sunlight; without sufficient shade, coffee trees produce fewer beans and become more vulnerable to disease.
He urged governments to accelerate investment to help farmers adapt, including protecting forests that can provide natural shelter from heat.
In Colombia, Eugenio Cifuentes, co-founder of the Colombian Organic Coffee Growers Association, said monoculture coffee farming will no longer work in the face of rising heat.
He argued that planting tall trees for shade is the only viable path to keep farm temperatures stable.
He pointed to 2024 as an example: despite being a hot, dry year, his coffee farm maintained both quality and yields thanks to shade trees, while neighbouring farms suffered severe problems.
In India, farmers such as Sohan Shetty report that heat is causing coffee blossoms to open earlier than normal, leading to lower-quality cherries or uneven ripening.
Meanwhile, Akshay Dashrath of the South India Coffee Company has used soil-moisture sensors and found that soils are losing moisture far more quickly than in the past, undermining the balance of coolness and humidity that coffee depends on.
This crisis is also quickly reaching consumers.
Food economist Mike von Massow noted that retail prices for roasted and ground coffee have continued to rise.
In Canada, prices were up 37.4% in January 2026 compared with a year earlier.
In Australia, the average price of a hot flat white has risen by around 10%, driven in part by higher green-bean costs linked to tighter supply, including production shortfalls in Brazil.
Experts warn that if current trends continue, suitable land for growing coffee could shrink by as much as 50% by 2050.
Traditional coffee areas may become too hot, especially for arabica, forcing farmers to move to higher, cooler elevations, raising the risk of deforestation as new coffee land is carved out.
Dr Kristina Dahl, Climate Central’s vice-president for science, warned: “Climate change is coming for our coffee.”
The impact will not be limited to farmers’ hardship; consumers will also feel it through quality and price.
If the root cause, carbon emissions, is not addressed, coffee could become scarce and unaffordable.
In Brazil’s Indigenous territories, Chief Rafael Mupimoku Suruí has adopted more sustainable coffee-farming methods to protect Amazonian robusta from drought and heat.
Yet the barrier he faces is bureaucracy, making it difficult for farmers to access loans needed to upgrade farms for climate resilience.
Despair is also beginning to build among younger people.
Fernandez worries that if farmers keep suffering repeated losses year after year, the next generation will lose interest in coffee farming, until the point comes when there are no producers left.
Ultimately, this crisis is not only about changes in coffee flavour.
It is about livelihoods, the loss of cultural heritage, and pride.
The only way forward is to ensure farmers can access finance and accelerate a shift towards sustainable agriculture.
Right now, the world is losing nearly two months’ worth of suitable coffee-growing days each year on average, an unmistakable warning that nature is sounding the alarm.
It is time for every stakeholder, from governments to consumers, to recognise that the cup of coffee in our hands is not just a drink, but the product of an ecosystem that is becoming dangerously fragile.
Without serious adaptation, the “bean belt” around the equator could become little more than a legend in history books.
Intensifying heat is pushing this crop towards disappearance from the very regions that have supported tens of millions of lives.
Coffee thrives on balance.
When that balance is broken by human action, humans must be the ones to restore it, before the smell of morning coffee becomes only a memory.
