Thaksin shifts strategy, Eyes Cabinet shake-up — Will a Banker rise as new finance chief?

This is evident from the ongoing game of political outsmarting between the two major coalition parties, who have been trading blows without restraint—raising questions about what level of political change may be on the horizon.

Many observers are predicting that after the Songkran festival, we may witness a shift in the political landscape—perhaps a change in the scene or even the players themselves.

This comes despite earlier projections from various pollsters—and repeated reassurances from Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra herself, as leader of the Pheu Thai Party—that the coalition parties would stick together and govern hand in hand through the full term.

 

However, the government is now under pressure from both internal and external challenges, with mounting setbacks—particularly in the realm of economic policy, where key initiatives have fallen short of expectations.

The “digital wallet” scheme, for instance, has long faced criticism for being different from what was originally promised. As of now, it has only progressed to Phase 2.

More recently, the draft bill for the “Entertainment Complex,” which the Pheu Thai Party had positioned as a flagship economic stimulus project aimed at boosting national revenue—and potentially the party’s popularity in the next election—has encountered significant resistance both inside and outside parliament. The opposition has caused such headaches for the prime minister that the initial deliberation scheduled for April 9 has been postponed by three months.

To make matters worse, resistance has now clearly emerged from within the coalition itself. In a dramatic move, Chaichanok Chidchob—MP for Buriram and secretary-general of the Bhumjaithai Party, and also the son of Newin Chidchob—declared in parliament that he would “never agree to casinos.”

Even though Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, as leader of the Bhumjaithai Party, was quick to clarify that the remark was “off-script” and did not reflect the party’s official stance, the damage was already done.

The fact that the “son of the party’s patriarch” dared to make such a bold declaration in parliament only underscored the ongoing political outsmarting game among coalition partners—further accelerating the build-up toward a boiling point.

This doesn’t even take into account other hot-button political agendas, such as constitutional amendments, which the Pheu Thai Party continues to face resistance. And then there’s the looming debate over an amnesty bill—set to be considered in the next parliamentary session—almost certain to ignite fierce political clashes.

With so many brewing tensions, it's clear that the Prime Minister and the Pheu Thai Party, as the coalition leader, have lost ground. And given the legacy of the party’s patriarch, Thaksin Shinawatra, it’s highly unlikely he will allow such a political setback to go unanswered.

Similar to economic issues—which may ultimately determine whether the prime minister can steer the government through a full term—the pressure is immense. Don’t forget that the Pheu Thai Party, inheriting the legacy of Thai Rak Thai, is renowned for its populist policies and is thus expected to deliver KPIs that measure up to the “Thaksin-era” government led by the prime minister’s own father.

It is said that Thaksin is now preparing to recalibrate the Pheu Thai-led government's policy strategy in order to rebuild confidence following the underwhelming performance of several flagship initiatives. This effort also served to revive the party’s popularity—a classic “game-changer” move for which Thaksin is known.

Recent reports suggest that Thaksin is setting up a new economic team to craft policies aimed at tackling household debt. This initiative is expected to be the party’s new flagship policy and the centerpiece of its upcoming campaign, aligning with ideas he has floated at various public forums.

One such occasion was during a meeting with Red Shirt supporters in Phitsanulok province on March 18, where Thaksin stated:

“We’re going to announce a new economic policy. I’ve been working on it with Paetongtarn. The question we’re asking is: How can we eliminate Thai people’s debt? Household debt has become overwhelming. So we’re thinking of buying up all the debt—removing it from the banking system. Then, people could gradually repay. We’d clear their credit bureau records and give them a fresh start. They’d be to earn a living again. And importantly, this wouldn’t cost the government a single baht.”

It’s clear that debt relief is one of Pheu Thai’s top priorities because it could directly influence the party’s approval ratings heading into the next election.

Reports suggest that Thaksin’s so-called “debt relief team” will include high-profile bankers, economists, and legal experts to help craft strategic plans and policy frameworks for this initiative.

This aligns with Thaksin’s recent behind-the-scenes activity, including a series of private meetings with the prime minister’s advisory team.

Meanwhile, with a Cabinet reshuffle widely anticipated after Songkran, several names have already surfaced—especially the “two Pichais”: Pichai Chunhavajira, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister, and Pichai Naripthaphan, the Commerce Minister, who was previously grilled by MPs from his own party during an internal party meeting.

Recent signs suggest both ministers are in the “high-risk” zone.

It’s also worth watching whether a prominent banker might be brought into the administration—potentially as the next finance minister. Thaksin has reportedly approached this figure several times in the past, though the individual has consistently declined and instead opted to remain behind the scenes as an advisor.

All eyes are now on after the Songkran holiday, we may witness a political shake-up—with new players, a new game plan, and perhaps even a power shift within Pheu Thai and its coalition allies, as daily political skirmishes continue to intensify.