Pheu Thai vs Bhumjaithai: Split premiership, shift in power

Thailand is entering a critical phase, confronting a crisis layered upon another. The dual pressures of economic stagnation and political tension are affecting citizens across all social classes.

The global economy remains sluggish, with most nations grappling with both internal and external turbulence. Thailand is no exception. The situation has been further exacerbated by aggressive trade and tax policies under US President Donald Trump, prompting countries worldwide to urgently seek negotiations for survival.

All eyes are now on Thailand’s economic team, led by Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira, to see whether they can propose terms palatable to the US without compromising Thailand’s national interest.

Though mass street protests have faded, political conflict has simply evolved into more sophisticated forms, most notably “legal warfare.” Legal mechanisms are increasingly being wielded as weapons in power struggles between major political figures and factions, with ordinary people inevitably caught in the crossfire.

The formation of a cross-ideological coalition government—engineered by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra behind the scenes—saw the Pheu Thai Party, long viewed as his political inheritance, aligning with conservative parties in exchange for his high-profile return to Thailand. The move appeased some but deeply unsettled the conservative establishment, who viewed the alliance as a bitter but necessary compromise to block the rise of the progressive "Orange Machine (People's Party)."

Still, many within the conservative camp remain distrustful of Thaksin and the Shinawatra family. This mistrust has manifested in subtle acts of political sabotage aimed at preventing Pheu Thai from advancing bold policies or consolidating power, whether concerning personal matters, family influence, or party-driven reforms.

From the very beginning, Pheu Thai’s much-touted digital wallet scheme—promising 10,000 baht per person—faced fierce resistance. The conservative establishment mobilised its full arsenal to block the policy, forcing the government to backpedal. As a result, the initiative was significantly watered down, raising questions about whether the retreat was a strategic move to avoid creating political openings for opportunistic rivals waiting in the wings.

The same dynamic has played out across other flagship policies intended to reshape the country, such as the draft bill on integrated entertainment complexes and the Southern Land Bridge megaproject connecting the Andaman Sea to the Gulf of Thailand. These transformative initiatives have stalled amid political friction and growing legal scrutiny.

Compounding the government’s fragility are ongoing legal troubles surrounding former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Recently, a court denied him permission to travel abroad due to pending lese majeste charges and scrutiny over his hospital stay on the 14th floor of the Police General Hospital during his incarceration. The Supreme Court’s Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions is set to begin hearings on June 13, adding to the pressure.

This has revived speculation over whether Thaksin’s so-called “special ticket” for return and political re-engagement has expired. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra herself faces mounting scrutiny from the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) over several issues:

Allegations that a 4.4-billion-baht promissory note (PN) was used to evade taxes, potentially involving 218.7 million baht.

Claims that the Thames Valley Khao Yai hotel is operating within a protected forest area raise questions about land rights and business legality.

Accusations of abuse of power in connection with Thaksin’s privileged hospital stay, following disciplinary action against involved medical personnel by the Medical Council.

These mounting investigations signal intensifying pressure directed at the Shinawatra family. That pressure became even more palpable with the launch of a high-profile case against alleged Senate election interference—an operation spearheaded by the Department of Special Investigation (DSI), under the Ministry of Justice. Analysts believe the case is a direct challenge to the so-called "Blue Network" aligned with Bhumjaithai, which is said to control key Senate factions.

At the heart of this network stands Newin Chidchob, widely believed to be orchestrating its moves and protected by powerful, behind-the-scenes forces. These forces, referred to in political circles as the "Blue Powers," have not only shielded the Bhumjaithai Party and its Senate allies but, in key moments, have launched offensive strikes against political adversaries, limiting their room to manoeuvre.

This has forced Thaksin, the de facto leader of Pheu Thai, to tread carefully and avoid crossing into territory controlled by the Blue Network. It’s clear that a proxy war is underway—one that pits Thaksin and Newin, two political titans, against each other through a series of high-stakes manoeuvres designed to preserve dominance for their respective parties and networks. In this game, one misstep could mean total defeat.

On the surface, the political stage is led by two prominent coalition figures: Prime Minister Paetongtarn, leader of the Pheu Thai Party, representing the “Red Camp,” and Deputy Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, head of Bhumjaithai, symbolising the “Blue Camp.” While both leaders appear side by side during weekly Cabinet meetings, the growing fractures behind the scenes suggest their parties are drifting further apart with each passing week, particularly over clashing policy agendas born from their respective campaign platforms.

The Cabinet meeting on 6 May was telling. Ministers from Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai reportedly avoided any meaningful interaction, with a palpable chill in the room that left ministers from other coalition parties visibly uneasy. Many now quietly speculate over when, not if, the rift will erupt into a full-blown political showdown.

The separation extended beyond body language. Ahead of the meeting, Paetongtarn convened Pheu Thai ministers at the Thai Koo Fah building, while Anutin gathered his team separately in his Deputy Prime Minister’s office. Each camp entered the Cabinet session with a clear internal agenda and little sign of collaboration.

Observers note that tensions are no longer confined to policy debates—they are spilling over into symbolic gestures and behind-the-scenes power plays. The political climate is tightening, leaving both sides with fewer strategic options. Two scenarios appear increasingly plausible:

Thaksin and Paetongtarn may opt to assert dominance by pushing for a Cabinet reshuffle that reclaims control of key ministries, chief among them, the Ministry of Interior, currently held by Bhumjaithai. Such a move would signal a decisive shift in power, though it would almost certainly provoke fierce retaliation. For the “Blue Network,” the Interior Ministry is its political stronghold. Taking it would be akin to storming the castle gates.

Should Pheu Thai pursue this path, it would need to secure a safety net in Parliament—possibly through informal alliances with opposition MPs—to ensure it can survive a government shakeup if Bhumjaithai retaliates by pulling out of the coalition.

If Pheu Thai deems a direct confrontation too risky, a more cautious reshuffle may be on the table—one that leaves Bhumjaithai’s Cabinet quotas untouched, particularly the Interior Ministry. This approach would preserve the fragile coalition status quo but do little to resolve underlying tensions. Worse, it could embolden the Blue Network to apply even greater pressure, tightening its grip from behind the scenes.

Whichever route is taken, it is becoming increasingly clear that Thailand’s ruling coalition is operating under strained coexistence. As mutual suspicion grows and as unresolved personal and institutional power plays escalate, the path forward is narrowing for both camps.

If Prime Minister Paetongtarn chooses to resign, it may be a strategic move to break free from what has become a form of political hostage-taking. Remaining in office exposes her to ongoing legal scrutiny and the risk of additional cases, potentially orchestrated by conservative forces seeking to tighten the net.

Her position as prime minister carries high personal and political stakes—stakes that her father, Thaksin, may be unwilling to risk again after the fate of his younger sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, who was ousted under similar pressures. Yet stepping down would also mark a significant loss of political leverage for the Shinawatra family and introduce fresh vulnerability to ongoing and pending legal cases involving its members.

Crucially, this option could also trigger a major political realignment within the ruling coalition. If Paetongtarn resigns, the premiership could shift away from Pheu Thai, potentially positioning Bhumjaithai as the new lead party.

Although Pheu Thai’s official list still includes Chaikasem Nitisiri as a backup candidate for PM, his poor health and low political visibility have prompted conservative factions to look beyond the party’s line of succession. In contrast, Bhumjaithai's sole nominee for the top job, Anutin Charnvirakul, stands ready, should the opportunity arise.

Hints of this ambition were visible last year. During a birthday ceremony for Bhumjaithai’s influential power broker, Newin, on 4 October 2024, Newin gave Anutin a symbolic blessing: “I tie this thread for you to become Prime Minister—great, strong, and enduring.” While it may have seemed lighthearted at the time, those within the party insist Newin wasn’t joking.

Even earlier, in private discussions between Thaksin and Anutin, when Srettha was forced out due to a constitutional ethics case, Bhumjaithai agreed to support Paetongtarn’s rise to premiership. However, party insiders made clear they would not offer the same courtesy if Pheu Thai tried to push forward Chaikasem. In such a scenario, Bhumjaithai would field Anutin as a rival candidate.

As Paetongtarn’s political prospects grow increasingly uncertain, many now see Bhumjaithai positioning itself as a fallback leader of the coalition, with Anutin ready to step in to “rescue” the government from a downward spiral—an alternative to calling snap elections.

In this chessboard of power, the Blue Network’s manoeuvres remain critical. Their strategy has been relentless—tightening the screws on Thaksin and Paetongtarn with little room to breathe. Time may soon force a decision that will define Thailand’s political direction.

Though undesirable for both Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai—neither of which is prepared for a snap election—dissolving Parliament remains the nuclear option. This last-resort card sits firmly in Thaksin’s hand, should he wish to reset the political board and renegotiate power deals from scratch.

Pheu Thai may no longer command the red wave as it once did, with the progressive “Orange Wave” having claimed a significant portion of its traditional base. However, Thaksin remains determined to reestablish Pheu Thai as the dominant political force—even if it means rolling the dice again.

Bhumjaithai, on the other hand, lacks grassroots momentum and would prefer to avoid high-stakes elections at mid-term. Historically, the party has followed a “play-safe” strategy—extending its tenure in government as long as possible before making bold moves. Anutin’s image as a neutral, diplomatic figure who can engage across political lines has helped him avoid entanglement in most legal controversies, keeping his party’s brand politically viable.

Each scenario—from resignation, to Cabinet reshuffle, to House dissolution—represents a calculated gamble. At the heart of the decision lies a power duel between two political titans: Thaksin Shinawatra of the Red Camp and Newin Chidchob of the Blue Camp.

The question now is which path the shifting political landscape will force them to take. Will they find a way to co-exist through a “shared premiership” formula? Or are they headed for an inevitable rupture—one that resets the game entirely through new elections?

The clock is ticking. And Thai politics may soon face a defining moment.