Foreign tourists to Thailand drop as strong baht hinders high season

The government had initially set a target of attracting 39-40 million international tourists to Thailand in 2025, similar to pre-pandemic levels in 2019. However, the target was later revised to 35.5 million, in line with the figures for 2024, due to concerns about safety perceptions. These concerns stemmed from incidents such as the disappearance of Chinese actor Xing Xing near the Thai-Myanmar border earlier in the year, as well as a March earthquake and ongoing tensions surrounding the Thai-Cambodian border dispute, all of which continued to affect travel confidence.

According to the latest report from the Ministry of Tourism and Sports, the number of international visitors to Thailand from January 1 to September 21, 2025, stood at 23,450,122, a decrease of 7.44% compared to the same period last year.

Rung Kanjanaviroj, Director of the Planning Department at the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT), shared during a press conference on Wednesday (September 24) that TAT's latest forecast estimates that Thailand will welcome 33.4 million international tourists by the end of 2025, marking a 6% decrease from the previous year.

This decline is mainly due to a 25% drop in visitors from East Asia and an 8% drop from ASEAN countries. However, regions experiencing growth include South Asia (up 15%), Europe (up 15%), the Americas (up 8%), Oceania (up 8%), and the Middle East (up 4%).

"TAT expects tourist revenue to decrease by 5% this year compared to the previous year, reflecting a decline in the number of international visitors," she added.

Thailand must refresh its image to compete effectively

The challenges facing Thailand’s tourism sector include ongoing concerns about safety and the Thai-Cambodian border dispute, which continue to impact the country's image. Additionally, there are issues related to the deterioration of tourist attractions, substandard services, a lack of infrastructure linking tourist cities, and changing traveller behaviours.

Meanwhile, competition from neighbouring countries and other key destinations is intensifying. Notably, China has emerged as a strong competitor, offering affordable prices, a wide range of products and services, and fresh, clean, and safe tourist attractions with excellent infrastructure that caters well to free independent travellers (FIT).

Vietnam is another significant competitor, attracting large numbers of tourists with aggressive pricing strategies and the addition of man-made attractions to complement its natural sites.

Japan, a perennial rival to Thailand, has positioned itself as a destination for high-end or luxury travellers, while Thailand focuses on the mid-to-upper market.

"Thailand is now seen as an old destination in the eyes of tourists, so it is time to refresh its image in 2026 with the concept of 'New Thailand' to make the country appear more vibrant. At the same time, the focus will be on 'Value over Volume,' emphasising quality, value, safety, and sustainability," Rung said.

TAT ramps up major events in Q4 to boost tourism mood

Thapanee Kiatphaibool, Governor of the TAT, stated that the high season in the fourth quarter of this year is a key opportunity for Thailand’s tourism sector. TAT is preparing to host several festivals and events, including the Sukhothai Loy Krathong Festival, lasting two weeks, the Amazing Thailand Marathon Bangkok, with the aim of establishing Bangkok as a global marathon hub alongside Berlin and Tokyo, and the Chao Phraya Royal Arts event, extended to approximately 45 days to attract more international tourists in the final months of the year. Additionally, the 2026 countdown event is a key highlight.

TAT is focusing on all markets to maximise the tourism momentum. The Nihao Month campaign, which began in September and will run through the end of the year, aims to attract Chinese tourists. During China’s Golden Week, from October 1, it is expected that 25,000-30,000 Chinese tourists will visit Thailand per day, with a total of 200,000-300,000 visitors over the 13-day period from September 26 to October 8, generating approximately 10 billion baht in tourism revenue.

TAT is also preparing to celebrate Diwali, the Indian New Year festival, to further attract international tourists.

For the domestic market, TAT plans to launch the “Tour Thailand Half-price” campaign to encourage Thai nationals, who usually travel independently, to opt for tour companies. The initiative will focus on offering exciting new travel packages, including food tours, faith-based tours, and wellness tours. Further discussions will be held with Atthakorn Sirilathayakorn, the Minister of Tourism and Sports, to review the project’s conditions and assess the remaining budget from the “Thai Travel Half-price ” scheme, which has already fully booked all 500,000 slots. This is particularly relevant given the strength of the Thai baht, which is drawing more Thai people to travel abroad.

Private sector envisions 70 million foreign tourists visiting Thailand

TAT and the Tourism Council of Thailand (TCT) hosted a seminar on the topic "The Next Steps for the Tourism Industry with the Thai Government" on September 24, with executives from three key private sector councils: the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), the Thai Chamber of Commerce, and TCT, joining in the discussion.

Kriengkrai Thiennukul, President of the FTI, stated that the tourism sector is facing heightened competition, as Thailand relies on foreign income, which accounts for over 70% of GDP—60% from exports and over 10% from tourism. Both of these key economic engines are currently concerned about the strengthening Thai baht.

"Compared to early 2025, the baht has appreciated by 7%. Over the past 17 months, it has strengthened by over 17%, which affects both tourism and export costs. In 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic, Thailand welcomed 39.9 million foreign tourists, generating 2 trillion baht in revenue. Including domestic tourism, the total was 3 trillion baht, which accounted for 18% of GDP. We hope to see Thailand welcoming 70 million foreign tourists, like France, generating 20-25% of GDP, to further strengthen the country's economic circulation."

Thailand's Tourism Industry at a Disadvantage Due to the Exchange Rate

In the next four months leading up to the dissolution of the House of Representatives, although the fourth quarter aligns with the high season for tourism, Thailand is at a disadvantage due to the strengthening of the baht. Meanwhile, key competitors like Japan are benefiting from a weaker yen. Japan’s image as clean, safe, and offering delicious food, along with more affordable shopping due to the weak yen, has led to a surge of Chinese tourists heading there. Similarly, Vietnam has seen a significant increase in Chinese tourists and has announced that this year will see the highest number of Chinese visitors to the country. In contrast, Thailand is facing challenges from safety image concerns and negative news, causing a slowdown in Chinese tourist arrivals.

Private Sector Calls on New Government to Support Cost Reduction for Competitiveness

The private sector is urging the new government to help reduce costs for the manufacturing and tourism industries. Many companies are relocating their production bases from China and other countries affected by US trade tariffs to Thailand and neighbouring countries. Currently, Thailand faces higher energy costs compared to its neighbours, particularly in electricity, putting it at a competitive disadvantage. 

The private sector's main request is for the government to improve the country’s competitiveness by reducing costs, especially hidden costs like outdated laws. With over 100,000 laws in place, many of which are seen as obstacles to business, there is a need for legal reforms to keep up with the modern world.

On financial costs, interest rates need to remain manageable, particularly for highly vulnerable SMEs. Many SMEs are struggling to access the funds they need, and their non-performing loan (NPL) ratio has increased by 7.6%, a concerning level. Additionally, purchasing power in rural areas is also dwindling, making this a fragile point for the Thai economy.

"Some argue that a stronger baht is beneficial, as it makes imported energy cheaper and reduces spending and investment costs. However, I believe this may not be the right time for that argument. Now, Thailand needs to focus on generating income, and the baht should remain at a suitable level, around 34-35 baht per dollar," Kriengkrai said.