Thailand forecasts THB42.23 billion surge for Chinese New Year 2026

“Chinese New Year” is a significant period when people reunite with families for prayers, shopping, spending time together, and travelling.

It is one of the highest-spending periods of the year and a festival that globally influences both the economy and culture.

In Thailand, which has a large Thai-Chinese population, it serves as a "High Season" for retailers to accumulate sales starting from the first quarter.

For the 2026 Chinese New Year festival, occurring from February 13–22, the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) forecasts continued growth in travel from both domestic and international markets.

Total revenue is expected to reach THB42.23 billion, a 13% increase compared to the same period last year, which saw THB37.415 billion.

Thapanee Kiatphaibool, Governor of the TAT, stated that for the international market alone, 1.25 million foreign tourists are expected to arrive during the festival.

This is a 10% increase from 2025, which saw 1.13 million tourists.

This segment is expected to generate THB35.48 billion, growing 14% compared to the previous year’s THB31.16 billion.

Meanwhile, the domestic market is expected to see 2.3 million Thai traveller trips, a 3% increase from 2025 (2.21 million trips).

This is projected to generate THB6.75 billion in circulating revenue, a 4% increase from last year’s THB6.255 billion.

Hopes for “Chinese Tourists in Thailand” to Recover to 6.7 Million This Year

Thapanee added that the vibrancy of both foreign and Thai markets during the Chinese New Year is a positive sign for the recovery of the Thai tourism industry.

The TAT is ready to push measures and tourism promotion activities throughout 2026 to generate revenue and distribute wealth to various regions.

Collaboration with the Association of Thai Travel Agents (ATTA) shows that forward bookings for the Chinese New Year period are “very good.”

Positive factors include tourism trends following famous artists, joint sales promotions with airlines, and the "Thailand Summer Blast" campaign, which supports charter flights from Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities in China to destinations in Thailand.

“Additionally, the cancellation of more flight routes from China to Japan means Thailand must seize the opportunity to attract Chinese tourists.

In February, a major Chinese New Year event will be held in Hat Yai District, Songkhla Province, to attract more Malaysian tourists.

Meanwhile, Yaowarat (Chinatown) will not host a formal event this year but will be beautifully decorated,” the Governor noted.

Previously, the TAT Governor stated a goal to recover the Chinese market to no less than 6.7 million tourists in 2026, equal to the performance in 2024.

This represents a growth of at least 40% compared to 4.47 million tourists in 2025, a year that faced challenges affecting tourism confidence, including earthquakes, intense competition from Asian rivals, and negative social media trends in China regarding the disappearance of Chinese actor Xing Xing near the Thai-Myanmar border.

Currently, the travel atmosphere and sentiment of Chinese people toward Thailand have improved.

China Cancels 49 Routes to Japan

Regarding the situation where Chinese authorities ordered the cancellation of 49 regular flight routes to Japan, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterated travel warnings, asking citizens to avoid Japan, especially during the Chinese New Year long holiday.

Data from Flight Master, a Chinese travel platform, indicates that the flight cancellation rate between Mainland China and Japan surged to 47.2% in January, an increase of 7.8% compared to December 2025.

As of January 26, flights on 49 routes scheduled for February had already been cancelled.

Affected flights include 113 flights between Beijing Daxing International Airport and Kansai International Airport in Osaka, as well as 13 flights between Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport and New Chitose Airport in Hokkaido.

Several Chinese airlines, such as Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern, announced an extension of flight change measures and refund policies for Japan-related travel until October 24, 2026 (end of the summer schedule), from the original end date of March 28, 2026 (end of the winter schedule).

“Chinese Travelers to Japan” in Dec 2025 dropped by 45%

The Chinese airline policies were first announced in November 2025 after Sanae Takaichi, the Prime Minister of Japan, stated that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could be considered a “threat to Japan’s survival” and could trigger a military response from Tokyo.

This became a point of dispute between the two Asian powers.

Latest data from the Japan National Tourism Organisation (JNTO) reports that in December 2025, 330,000 Chinese tourists visited Japan, a 45% decrease compared to the same month in 2024.

However, for the overall year of 2025, a total of 9.09 million Chinese tourists visited Japan, up 30.3% from the year prior.

This was the second-largest market for foreign tourists in Japan, trailing South Korea (9.46 million, +7.3%). Third was Taiwan (6.76 million, +11.9%), fourth was the USA (3.3 million, +21.4%), fifth was Hong Kong (2.51 million, -6.2%), and sixth was Thailand (1.23 million, +7.3%).

Targeting 36.7 Million Foreign Tourists for Thailand This Year

The Ministry of Tourism and Sports recently reported accumulated foreign tourist statistics from January 1–25, 2026, at 2.63 million, a 9% decrease compared to the same period last year.

The top 5 markets were: 1. China (301,000), 2. Malaysia (236,000), 3. Russia (223,000), 4. India (189,000), and 5. South Korea (136,000).

For the full year of 2025, Thailand welcomed a total of 32.97 million foreign tourists, a 7.23% decrease from 2024, generating THB1,530 billion from the international market (a 4.71% decrease).

The Chinese market was the second largest with 4.47 million visitors, following Malaysia at 4.52 million.

Other top markets included India (2.48 million), Russia (1.89 million), and South Korea (1.55 million).

Thapanee stated that for 2026, the goal is to generate THB3,000 billion in total tourism revenue, an 11% increase from 2025.

The target is 36.7 million foreign tourists (+11%), generating THB2,000 billion from the international market.

For domestic tourism, the goal is 210 million trips (+4%), generating THB1,000 billion.

In 2025, Thailand’s total tourism revenue was THB2,700 billion from 32.97 million foreign tourists and 202 million domestic trips.

Central Invests THB600 Million to Boost CNY Spending

Nattakit Tangpoonsinthana, Chief Marketing Officer at Central Pattana Public Company Limited, operator of Central shopping centres nationwide, stated that Central Pattana has joined forces with “Central Retail” to invest a THB600 million budget to launch “The Great Chinese New Year 2026” campaign (#LuckyFireHorseAtCentral).

Running from January 30 to March 1, the campaign spans over 3,000 Central Retail stores and Esplanade Ratchada, offering events and promotions to meet the lifestyles of modern shoppers across all generations and stimulate the economy and tourism.

This year, Central shopping centres are designed as “Complete Destinations” that combine ‘Shopping, Praying, Eating, and Travelling’ in one place to create a contemporary experience and stimulate Q1 spending.

Traffic is expected to increase by approximately 25-30%.

Central Pattana expects the main foreign tourist groups during the festival to be from China, Malaysia, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Taiwan.

The top destination "Tourist Malls" for Chinese visitors include CentralWorld, Central Park, Central Village Outlet, Rama 9, Phuket, Pattaya, Chiang Mai, and Chiang Mai Airport.

Furthermore, they have partnered with “BEAUTRIUM” to launch campaigns on Xiaohongshu (the #1 Chinese lifestyle platform) and various e-wallets.

“Chinese New Year” Drives Q1 GDP

Piyawan Leelasompop, Senior Executive Vice President of Marketing at Central Retail Corporation Public Company Limited, stated that the Chinese New Year is vital to the Thai economy in the first quarter through spending on goods, services, tourism, and ceremonial items.

During the 2025 festival, data from the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) indicated that circulating funds in the Thai economy reached over THB51 billion, a 4.5% expansion and the highest in five years.

“In line with the positive signals this year, where the TAT aims to attract 6.7 million Chinese tourists, we are confident that the Chinese New Year will be a primary mechanism to drive strong GDP expansion in the first quarter,” Piyawan said.

Central Retail and Central Pattana are utilising the “Power of Ecosystem” in “The Great Chinese New Year 2026” to bridge offline and online platforms seamlessly.

This covers multi-category retail and wholesale businesses across 3,000 branches in 62 provinces, including Central Department Store, Robinson, Supersports, Central Marketing Group, Tops, GO Wholesale, Thai Watsadu, Power Buy, B2S, OfficeMate, and Robinson Lifestyle.

The strategy follows the "3C" model: “CELEBRATE-CHANGE-CHANCE.”

Central Chidlom as a Check-in Landmark

Ravisra Chirathivat, Managing Director of Marketing at Central Department Store Group, noted that the Chinese New Year is a significant cultural and economic time.

The shopping experience and auspicious activities are designed under the symbol of the “Year of the Fire Horse, Powerful, Strong, and Elegant.”

"The highlight this year is the landmark check-in following the Fire Horse zodiac at Central Chidlom, representing strength, freedom, determination, and elegance, creating an atmosphere that encourages customers to capture and share special moments," Ravisra concluded.