Baht forecast at 30.2-31.2 per dollar: NESDB
The National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) expects the Thai baht to remain in the range of 30.2 - 31.2 per US dollar in the remaining months of the year.
The yearly average exchange rate in 2013 is forecasted to be in the range of 29.8 – 30.8 per US dollar, compared with an average rate of 30.6 baht per US dollar in 2012 and the assumed range of 28.8 – 29.8 in the previous projection. In the first half of 2013, the average exchange rate was at 29.9, before falling to 31.13 at the end of July.
Some other key figures in NESDB's outlook report:
- The number of domestic car sales in 2013 is not expected to be lower than 2012 but will remain within the bound of 1 0 0 ,0 0 0 cars and this reduction will be compensated by demand for export. Thus, the automotive production will not be lower than the production level in 2012.
- Though the policy rate was cut in the second quarter to 2.50 per cent, the average lending rate of four major banks remained unchanged while the deposit rate
increased. The Minimum Loan Rate (MLR) of four major banks remained stable at 7.00 per cent per annum, while an average 12-month deposit rate slightly increased from 2.45 to 2.50 per cent per annum, reflecting intense competition for deposits. Institutions secured sufficient funding to match growing demand for loan both public, especially for the transport infrastructure development plan, and private sectors. Demand for new loan remained high while an average 12-month deposit rate slightly decreased following the policy rate reduction.
- The average crude oil price fell from the previous quarter. In the second quarter of 2013, the average crude oil price in the 4 major markets (Dubai, Oman, Brent and WTI) stood at $99.80 per barrel, a decline of 3.8 per cent, compared with a 5.9 per cent decline in the previous quarter. The crude oil price in Dubai, Brent, and Oman markets dropped from the same period last year by 5.3, 5.3, and 4.9 per cent respectively, while WTI crude oil price remained stable. This was caused by sluggish global demand as global economy tended to recovery at a slower pace while the Chinese economy decelerated. Furthermore, the increase in
the US crude oil production also affected the global crude oil price.
The average Dubai crude oil price is expected to be in the range of $104-$109 per barrel, compared with an average of $108.8 per barrel in 2012. The average Dubai crude oil price in the first 7 months of 2013 was at $104.2 per barrel. For the rest of 2013, it is expected that crude oil price will increase gradually due to (i) the gradual recovery of global economy, particularly the downward revision of the economic growth rate of China, (ii) the increase in crude oil production and export by the US, and (iii) the stabilization and appreciation of the US dollar (Trade Weight) under the likelihood of QE tapering in the US and the rising concerns over the slowdown of Chinese economy as well as the ongoing QE in Japan.
