Political pressure on SET index
The Stock Exchange of Thailand index could fall below 1,300 points if political tension turns into violence, said a brokerage house.
Globlex Securities painted a range of scenarios, which could lead to a loss of 3.25 per cent to 13 per cent in the SET index.
If tension is kept at this level, the index could lose 3.25 per cent. The medium-level tension will cause a 6.50 per cent dip. Ini the worst case, the index could plunge by as much as 13 per cent, or to 1,292 points.
At noon today, the index is at 1,429.99 points, barely changed from yesterday's closing. Regional bourses also slightly dropped today morning, following a decline in US as Federal Reserve decision to maintain the relaxed monetary policy has been discounted.
The SET index ended the day at 1,442.88 points, up by 11.76 points or 0.82 per cent. Turnover was at Bt37.55 billion.
Historically, political rallies dampened the market sentiments. The uprising in April 2010 caused a 12.9 per cent loss in the index. After the Ratchaprasong uprising, the index lost 9.8 per cent.
Some MPs of Democrat Party plan a big rally with some 10,000 protesters against the amnesty bill, which seeks to nullify charges against all including those charges filed by the Assets Examination Committee. The second reading of the bill is underway.
Asset Plus Securities noted that the likelihood that the government whip would not rush the reading is positive to the market sentiment.
It noted that there is a high tendency that the SET index would decline today, with a possibility that the index may fall to 1,425 points in this afternoon.
