Both sides in the so-called Brexit debate cite several political and economic reasons to support their beliefs.
The “stay” side says the benefits of being in the EU are much higher than the costs in the form of financial assistance to other EU members. Moreover, leaving the EU would make it more difficult to maintain the UK’s status as a world financial centre, and would create short-term volatility in money and capital markets.
Meanwhile, the “leave” side counters that the economic interests claimed by its opponents do not account for the loss of political and economic freedom that prevents the UK from being able to enter its own free-trade agreements.
Therefore, to understand the real impact of Brexit on all stakeholders, we must first find out who the supporters of each side are. What are their economic status and political beliefs? These are key issues that will help us get the right focus on the debate.
Some academics have said the majority of people and institutions that support the “stay” side can be classified as the “establishment”. They are against Brexit because they want to maintain the status quo, which is the only environment that is familiar to them and can be controlled by them.
The group that supports the “leave” side is, therefore, “non-establishment” – those who are relatively more progressive and open to change.
So the debate on Brexit is a matter of the philosophical differences in beliefs and economic prospects of each group.
Both the EU itself and the United States, trying very hard to keep the global economy out of recession, would prefer the UK to maintain its membership in the union. This may be the reason the European Council granted Britain a special status in February.
The special status gives the UK the right not to adopt the euro forever. In addition, the UK managed to increase its control over the issue of migrant workers from elsewhere in the EU. For example, the UK is allowed to set additional conditions requiring immigrants from EU nations to find a job within six months or leave the country.
The special status was intended to give support indirectly the establishment’s opportunity to defeat the non-establishment side in the referendum.
No matter how this referendum turns out, and regardless of how crucial this issue is to the UK, we have already seen the beauty of full tolerance of different views in a democratic society.
Professor Arayah Preechametta is a lecturer in the faculty of economics, Thammasat University.