Study needed for revision of export estimate
THE Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) will assess impacts on the US economy from Hurricane Harvey and the tension with North Korea before revising forecast for Thai export growth on October 10.
According to Predee Daochai, chairman for Thai Bankers' Association, JSCCIB expects the Thai economy to expand faster than expected in the second quarter of 2017 on the back of export expansion, recovery in tourism and higher agricultural output compared with last year's decline due to drought.
For the rest of this year, the Thai economy is expected see satisfactory growth, said Predee who is also president at Kasikornbank.
He calls for monitorng of farm incomes which have been affected by recent floods, prices of agricultural products and baht appreciation.
In its meeting, JSCCIB left its estimate for this year's growth unchanged at 3.5-4.0 per cent. Inflation is expected to stay in a range of 0.5-1.5 per cent.
Export growth will likely exceed earlier forecast for the year, following a 8.2 per cent expansion for the first seven months, Predee said.
However, JSCCIB needs to assess impacts on Thailand's trading countries, particularly the United States, from the North Korea threat and the baht movement before reviewing the committee's estimate on Thai exports in its October-10 meeting, Predee said.
The US could see impacts on its economic output in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey, while the US political situation will be under watch.
Predee said that JSCCIB is also closely monitoring the baht which has been appreciating more than the currencies of its trading peers while the North Korean situation may cause the baht to strengthen further.
The committee viewed international trade with higher profit, inflow of foreign capital and the US economic policy which will lead to weakening of the US dollar, could have an impact on the baht movement , he said.
However, related Thai agencies will be able to keep the baht in check and more Thai investment could be allowed abroad
Currently, only a small number of SMEs opt to hedge against foreign exchange risks and measures will be launched soon, said Kalin Sarasin, chairman of the Board of Trade of Thailand. The planned measures have been proposed by the private sector and agreed by Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak.
According to JSCCIB, TBA reported that the recovery in purchasing power was not yet strong enough despite higher-than-expected exports.
