Experts peg GDP growth at 4% in 2019

The Thai economy is also predicted to recover in the fourth quarter of this year after a slump in the third quarter, according to experts at the two banks.
Thailand’s GDP is predicted to recover from a low 3.3-per-cent growth in the third quarter to 3.9 per cent in the fourth quarter, according to Yunyong Thaicharoen, first executive vice president and head of SCB’s Economic Intelligence Centre.
Yunyong was speaking at an SCB press conference in Chiang Mai last Friday. 
He predicted that exports would grow by 7.5 per cent in 2018, lower than the Commerce Ministry’s 8-per-cent estimate. Yunyong further predicted a fall in export growth to 4.3 per cent in 2019. This is due to the uncertain trading conditions stemming from the ongoing US-China trade war.
“Meanwhile, GDP growth in 2019 will be strong at 4.2 per cent. This would be partly from the expected recovery of tourism numbers, which would most likely occur in the second quarter of next year,” he said. 
“We expect a total of 38 million tourists to visit Thailand by the end of this year, and up to 40.2 million in 2019, marking a 5.8 per cent year-on-year increase,” he stated.
“Government policies aimed at boosting tourism such as offering free visa-on-arrival to tourists from targeted countries will certainly help support the recovery of tourism numbers in 2019,” he continued.
“However, the key factor which has led to a slump in tourism numbers in the third quarter of this year was the concern over Thailand’s tourist safety standards,” he said.
“Hence the Thai government will need to direct its efforts to improve safety measures and assure Chinese tourists that Thailand is a safe tourist destination,” he said.
Yunyong pointed to the Phuket boat accident in July, which damaged the trust of Chinese tourists and led to a fall in tourist numbers in the third quarter.
In the third quarter of this year, foreign tourist arrival growth was at 7.4 per cent year on year. Meanwhile, in the first six months of this year tourism grew by up to 12.2 per cent year on year, according to the Tourism and Sports Ministry.
The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) offered supporting figures: in August, 867,000 tourists visited the country, down 11.77 per cent month on month.
In September, only 648,000 Chinese tourists came, marking an even steeper 14.89 per cent fall month on month. 
Another key growth driver for 2019 will be public and private investments, Yunyong claimed. He predicted total private investments to grow by 4 per cent year on year in 2019.
He expects foreign direct investment (FDI) to increase by single digits as the Thai government tries to attract FDI into the Eastern Economic Corridor.
Meanwhile, total public investment in 2018 is predicted at Bt747 billion with Bt600 billion going to general projects and Bt147 billion going to transportation mega-projects. 
In 2019, total public investment is predicted at Bt813 billion, with Bt649 billion going to general projects and Bt164 billion going to transportation mega-projects, according to figures from the ministry of finance and ministry of transport. 
“The Thai economy may enjoy 4-per-cent growth [next year], with the help of investment to compensate from the faltering momentum of external sectors such as exports and tourism,” Kasikorn Research Centre assistant managing director Nattaporn Triratanasirikul said at a separate seminar on Friday.
KBank’s export analysis suggests slower growth in 2019.
“The US-China trade war will be a key variable for Thai exports next year. Our exports are projected to grow at 4.5 per cent in 2019 versus 7.7 per cent in 2018,” Nattaporn said.