FRIDAY, March 29, 2024
nationthailand

Failure to quickly contain Covid-19 could hit economy hard, ex-dean warns 

Failure to quickly contain Covid-19 could hit economy hard, ex-dean warns 

Many businesses and workers may go bankrupt if a new wave of virus infection cannot be contained quickly, an economist has warned.

The second wave of Covid-19 outbreak has so far been limited to some areas, but it is quickly spreading, Anusorn Tamajai, former dean at Rangsit University’s Faculty of Economics, warned. He suggested that the government compensate businesses and workers affected by lockdown restrictions put in place in Samut Sakhon province, west of Bangkok.

The new wave of infections poses challenges for both businesses and the government as they have limited financial resources to deal with it, he said.

New cases of infections in Thailand shot up to 689 on Sunday in six provinces, the highest number of cases on a single-day since the outbreak early this year.

The largest cluster originated from Samut Sakhon where nearly 700 people have tested positive for the virus over the weekend, and most of them are Myanmar nationals who work as labourers in Samut Sakhon in related fishing industries.

The provincial governor has ordered lockdown  restrictions for 14 days, from December 19 to January 3. 

Anusorn said the government should undertake aggressive testing in key provinces which share a border with Myanmar, or have large numbers of foreign workers, such as Samut Sakhon, Samut Songkram, Samut Prakan, Nakhon Pathom, Ratchaburi, Ranong, Tak, Chiang Mai and Chian Rai. The government also has to ensure adequate medical supplies, he said. People have to wear masks, and public buses on risk routes have to be disinfected.

He said the government has to limit activities for New Year celebrations. He warned that if the government cannot contain the spread of the virus, it would damage the economy much more than when Thailand put the whole country in lockdown in March. Cases of infections may rise 4 to 5 times and it may take twice as long to contain the spread, he said.

He predicted that the Stock Exchange of Thailand Index would plunge sharply next week to below 1,438. The surge of virus cases will also limit the appreciation of the baht which had jumped to a seven-year high on Friday against the US dollar. The US move to place Thailand on a monitoring list of currency manipulators had strengthened the baht.

Gold and commodity prices are expected to rise.

Regarding the impact of the severe floods in the South, he said it would reduce the production of rubber sheets and palm oil by 0.8 to 1 million tonnes, accounting for 0.05 per cent of gross domestic product. 

The losses from the floods would not exceed Bt7 billion, he said.

The impact of floods is much smaller than the impact of the coronavirus outbreak, he said.

The Thai government has eased lockdown restrictions since May, allowing many businesses to reopen. However, the country is still effectively closed to foreign tourists.

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