Government needs to hike budget for vaccine to prevent economy taking bigger hit 

A new round of coronavirus infections globally and the threat of new virus variants may force many countries to impose ban on foreign arrivals, and such restrictions would disrupt recovery of the global economy, he said.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) may plunge below 1,400 from Friday’s close of 1,486.31, he predicted.

The SET's new barrier may be at 1,380. The baht will not change much in the final week of the year but it could have a tendency to appreciate in the first quarter of next year due to large contraction in imports, he said.

Investors may shift their funds to more secure asset classes, such as gold and government bonds, as Thailand and other Asian countries are facing a new round of infections which threatens economic recovery. The threat of a US government shutdown could also make global stock markets jittery, as incumbent President Donald Trump has not yet signed the virus relief package into law. That would also adversely affect US stocks and the dollar, said Anusorn.

The Thai government reported 121 new Covid-10 cases on Sunday and authorised partial lockdowns in several provinces.

“The challenge for the government is how to prevent multiple clusters and superspreading events in the next two months,” he said.

If the government can do that, then the virus will be contained as it was in the first round of infection, therefore any large gathering of people must be avoided over the next two months, he noted.

He said the government's budget of Bt6 billion to buy vaccines is not adequate. The Bt6 billion will buy just 26 million doses of vaccine and only 13 million people will get shots as everyone needs two shots.

Thailand needs to vaccinate at least 53 to 54 million people, including migrant workers, to control the virus and pave the way for reopening of the economy in the third quarter next year, he suggested.

So the government needs Bt18.69 billion more for vaccine sourcing, as the country needs to import at least 107 million vaccine doses, he said.

“If Thailand cannot reopen the economy in the third quarter of next year, more people will lose their jobs, more small businesses will go bankrupt and financial institutions will face serious trouble,” he warned.

The government has to go ahead with its plan to collect land and building tax in order to get more revenue from wealthy people who have the capacity to pay more taxes, he said.

He also urged the government to allow private hospitals to provide vaccinations to high-income groups in order to reduce government spending.

The Bank of Thailand on Wednesday cut its economic growth projection for next year to 3.2 per cent, down from the previous projection of 3.6 per cent, due to the impact of the new round of Covid infections worldwide.

The central bank, however, revised upward its forecast for this year's growth, predicting a contraction of 6.6 per cent compared with the 7.8 per cent contraction predicted previously.