True-DTAC merger would undermine telecom market, Thai economy, says study by NBTC advisers
A merger between True Corporation and Total Access Communication (DTAC) would likely degrade market competition, raise prices and lower service levels due to a lack of competition, a study conducted by telecoms watchdog NBTC’s foreign advisers has found.
The study also said that it would be difficult to rectify the resulting lack of market competition by introducing new competitors after the merger.
The study on the impact of the proposed True-DTAC merger was done by UK-based SCF Associates Ltd for the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC).
The telecoms regulator has dithered on whether to approve the proposed merger by Thailand’s second- and third-largest mobile network operators.
Last week, the Thailand Consumers Council urged the NBTC to make its decision on the planned merger strictly according to the law, without allowing capitalists to take advantage of the public and the market.
The adviser report, dated September 14, is the first of three prepared for the NBTC. A copy of the report was obtained by The Nation.
The study said that the merger would adversely affect competition in the Thai mobile market for data, voice and messaging, as well as the market for bundled services integrated with mobile connectivity, which characterises the country’s current and future mobile market.
Also, the study found that the resulting uncompetitive market condition due to the merger would be difficult to rectify by attempting to restore competition through the introduction of new operators.
“All potential remedies have difficulties, be they attempting to encourage a third new mobile network operator to enter, and/or introduction of a resilient and highly aggressive mobile virtual network operator wholesale market, or by forcefully managing pricing and service competition levels, via detailed regulatory reviews over many years,” the report said.
Repercussions on the Thai economy could be serious as “mobile is an essential ingredient of Thailand’s economic success”, the report said.
It pointed out that without vibrant competition, which attracts investments to a sector that drives many others, new mobile market development could be impaired with wider consequences.
“The Thai mobile market and associated communications offerings may become less attractive — thus, for instance, reducing FDI [foreign direct investment] generally,” the report said.
It cited cases from foreign mobile markets, such as the Philippines and Mexico, where a lack of competition led to higher prices and a shortage of new technologies and advanced services.
However, the report also stated that a decision on the merger of True and DTAC was a question requiring further analysis and ultimate conclusions could be drawn from the next phase of research.
“Such a direction would require the regulator to have suitable countervailing powers to halt industry concentration,” the report said.
The study examined the background to the proposed merger, expected impacts after the merger on barriers to entry and access to infrastructure, and conditions and measures that correspond to effects arising from the merger.
It was found that after a merger between two mobile network operators, access to the infrastructure needed to build a new business is “likely to be most difficult”. The study estimated that a new third network would need five to eight years to construct its infrastructure and become capable of gaining market share.
After the merger, it would “likely be most difficult” to restore competition, as remedies are not readily apparent, be they at the level of markets, infrastructure or regulatory oversight, the report concluded.
