ASEAN expected to be a major beneficiary from global turbulence

 

Despite global uncertainty and turmoil, Southeast Asia still presents significant untapped potential and opportunities for growth, according to Chartsiri Sophonpanich, president of Bangkok Bank.

 

Speaking at the recent AEC Business Forum 2025, themed "ASEAN in the Age of Disruption", he highlighted the region's abundant resources, skilled young workforce, and growing consumer spending power as key drivers.

 

"While facing rising uncertainties and challenges, ASEAN also presents compelling opportunities," he said. "The region's diverse resources and competitive labour costs continue to attract significant investment, drawing global capital away from other troubled economies."

 

Chartsiri emphasised the importance of fostering cooperation at local, regional, and global levels to effectively address both the challenges and opportunities presented by the current era.

 

 

 

          Expanding middle class

ASEAN's growth potential is significantly driven by an expanding middle class, leading to increased demand for consumer goods, education, healthcare, and tourism. This has spurred significant infrastructure investments across the region, including roads, railways, ports, energy, and digital infrastructure, he said.

 

These developments aim to enhance connectivity, reduce costs, and strengthen the region's position in the global supply chain.

 

Thailand stands to benefit significantly from ASEAN's expansion. Major infrastructure projects, such as the high-speed rail connecting Bangkok to the eastern coast and interconnectivity projects with Laos and China (expected to be completed within the next five years), are poised to stimulate the growth of new industries, including biotechnology, green technologies, electric vehicles, and advanced electronics, he said.

 

 

           Navigating turbulence

Kobsak Pootrakool, director and senior executive vice president of Bangkok Bank, acknowledged the significant challenges facing Thailand amid rapid change and heightened risk.

 

"We will encounter intense competitive pressures in the future, potentially forcing some large companies to exit the market, as we have already witnessed with several automotive firms closing operations in Thailand," he warned. "Consolidation is likely to increase, reflecting the intensifying risks stemming from global changes."
 

 

 

 

          ASEAN attracts new investment

Despite these challenges, Thai businesses possess significant growth potential within ASEAN. Moreover, global uncertainties are making ASEAN an increasingly attractive destination for new investments, Kobsak said.

 

Within the next five years, ASEAN's economy is projected to become the fourth largest globally, reaching an economic value of US$6.7 trillion, up from its current $2.5 trillion.

 

Thailand’s foreign tourist arrivals are projected to increase from 35.5 million in 2024 to 40 million. This, coupled with government stimulus measures, is expected to drive economic growth of around 3% this year.
Transformative phase for Thailand

 

"Investments exceeding 1 trillion baht through BOI [Board of Investment] represent a decade-high, signalling that we are entering a transformative phase for the country and moving towards a new era of development," Kobsak said. "While the immediate impact may not be immediately apparent, I believe that within 3-5 years, the effects of these investments will become evident. Thailand will undoubtedly benefit from the influx of investment into ASEAN, regardless of whether the investments flow directly into Thailand or into other parts of the region. However, it is crucial for businesses to adapt and be ready to seize the emerging opportunities," he added.

 

 

          Warning of global risks

Bangkok Bank emphasised the increasing urgency of addressing three key global risks: digital transformation, geopolitical conflicts, and climate change. The bank urged for proactive preparedness and continuous adaptation to change to avoid being left behind.

 

Geopolitical conflicts, such as the US-China trade war, the Russia-Ukraine crisis, and tensions in the Middle East, pose significant risks. These conflicts contribute to instability and have far-reaching consequences.

 

"Trade wars and the Russia-Ukraine situation continue to fuel widespread impacts," Chartsiri cautioned. "We must remain vigilant and increasingly aware of the challenges that lie ahead."