Thai Border Trade with Cambodia and Myanmar Plunges into Crisis

 

Thailand's border trade is currently facing unprecedented pressure from two simultaneous fronts: a prolonged closure of all border crossings with Cambodia since mid-2025 and a recent, sudden shutdown of crossings with Myanmar along a 2,400-kilometre border. 

 

The combined impact threatens to severely contract the 570 billion baht trade value Thailand shared with these two nations in 2024, bringing exports to a halt and disrupting related supply chains.

 

The complete closure of all Thai-Cambodian checkpoints since 23 June 2025 has directly impacted a trade valued at an average of 27 billion baht per month. In 2024, Thailand’s exports to Cambodia totalled over 324.13 billion baht. 

 

The sustained closure means Thailand could lose more than 120 billion baht in land-based exports to Cambodia in the latter half of 2025 alone.

 

While some goods are still transported by sea, this is insufficient to replace the vital land routes that serve as the lifeblood of the border economy.

 

According to the Economic and Business Forecasting Centre at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, the permanent closure of the five main checkpoints—Aranyaprathet, Khlong Yai, Chong Chom, Chanthaburi, and Chong Sa-ngam—is costing Thailand an estimated 11.65 billion baht per month, or over 141.84 billion baht annually. 

 

The Aranyaprathet checkpoint, in particular, accounts for the largest share of this loss, with damages exceeding 7 billion  baht per month. If the closure continues for a full year, it could reduce Thailand's GDP by approximately 0.31%.

 

The disruption is particularly acute for three key export sectors to Cambodia: food and beverages (worth 32.74 billion baht), vehicles and parts (18.57 billion baht), and chemicals and fertilisers (15.30 billion baht). 
 

 

 

On the import side, the interruption to the supply of goods from Cambodia—specifically cassava, metals, and scrap metal—worth over 20 billion baht, has brought local and large-scale businesses along the seven-province border to an immediate standstill.

 

Simultaneously, Thailand’s trade with Myanmar faces a similar crisis. 

 

A sudden closure of the Mae Sot-Myawaddy border crossing on 14 August 2025 has since spread to nearly all checkpoints along the eight-province border, from Chiang Rai to Ranong. 

 

Myanmar's government cited the need to regulate illegal imports, address tax revenue leakage, and increase foreign exchange reserves as reasons for the closures.

 

The impact was immediate. Hundreds of trucks are now stranded at the checkpoints, unable to transport Thai exports to Yangon. 

 

Similarly, Myanmar businesses cannot bring goods into Thailand. This has halted a trade flow that accounts for over 80% of total Thai-Myanmar trade.

 

In 2024, total trade between the two countries was valued at 253.51 billion baht, with border trade making up 208.93 billion baht. However, the first half of 2025 saw this figure fall to just 130.01 billion baht, a continuous decline.

 

This problem is compounded by Myanmar's already fragile economy, weakened by the 2021 coup, Western sanctions, a depreciating kyat, and dwindling foreign reserves. 

 

 

 

The government's “Earning Money” policy, which requires importers to show proof of foreign income equal to the value of their imports, is a strict measure to preserve currency reserves.

 

While it may help tax collection, it further burdens trade and heightens uncertainty.

 

For Thailand, the impact is severe for businesses in the eight border provinces that rely directly on trade with Myanmar. The 250 billion baht trade in 2024 is now at a standstill. 

 

Additionally, Thai investors with accumulated investments of over $11.69 billion in Myanmar face significant risks from unpredictable government policies and political instability.

 

In conclusion, Thailand’s border trade with both Cambodia and Myanmar is facing a compounded crisis of economic and security factors. The estimated hundreds of billions of baht in losses highlight the structural risks of the border economy. 

 

If left unresolved, economic ties may not recover. It is therefore crucial for the leaders of the three nations to restore trust and establish trade and investment regulations that benefit the public and private sectors. Should a concrete solution not be found, Thailand’s position as a regional trade hub could be seriously challenged in the coming decade.