Business leaders monitor Paetongtarn case, eyeing two scenarios

The Constitutional Court is set to rule on the case involving an audio clip of a conversation between Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who also serves as Culture Minister, and Hun Sen, former Prime Minister of Cambodia. The court is scheduled to deliver its verdict on August 29, 2025.

Poj Aramwattananont, Chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce and the Board of Trade of Thailand, said he is not concerned about the outcome of the ruling or whether the Prime Minister will remain in office.

He emphasised that the country is facing challenges and called for a leader with knowledge and recognised competence both domestically and internationally to restore business confidence and ensure efficient governance. The private sector wants to see a professional Cabinet managing the country.

“Whatever the verdict may be, it should be reasonable and acceptable to society, avoiding further turmoil. Politics should follow proper procedures, with a Prime Minister and Cabinet recognised internationally and committed to driving the country forward swiftly,” Poj said.

Business Leader Discusses Two Political Scenarios

Kriengkrai Thiennukul, Chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), has shared his perspective on Thailand's political stability, offering two potential scenarios to reflect the economic impact following the Constitutional Court's ruling on the current Prime Minister's position.

Scenario 1: Court Rules No Wrongdoing

If the Constitutional Court rules that the Prime Minister is not at fault, it will allow the government to continue managing the country without disruption, providing a critical factor in restoring business confidence. This decision would be a vital opportunity to boost economic confidence among businesses, investors, and the public.

However, the government will still need to focus on rebuilding public trust by implementing clear and concrete policies, particularly in areas such as economic growth, job creation, and improving the quality of life for citizens.

Scenario 2: Court Rules Wrongdoing

If the Constitutional Court rules that the Prime Minister has committed a wrongdoing and must step down, leading to the resignation of the entire Cabinet, it would trigger a process to select a new Prime Minister from the remaining candidates.

This could result in the formation of a new government coalition, leading to political instability. Such instability could negatively impact investor confidence, both domestically and internationally.

“The ongoing conflict with Cambodia and the political uncertainty erode business confidence. The private sector must quickly adapt and prepare for a volatile situation, while also working to restore investor confidence to maintain investment levels and enhance the country’s long-term image,” Kriangkrai said.

Call for Political Stability

Woranate Laprabang, CEO of VietJet Thailand, expressed that the private sector is more focused on political stability than on who will form the government. The private sector is ready to support government policies, but the key factor is the stability of those policies. Frequent changes in policy could lead to a lack of confidence among foreign investors, which may hinder investment and business activities.

“The most important thing is security, stability, and consistency in policies. We don’t want to see too many changes, as it could undermine investor confidence. As for the current political situation, we support all parties and hope that the overall interests of the country are prioritised. We want the government to focus on managing the economy and, most importantly, enhancing the country’s competitiveness in the long term. Right now, we must pay attention to regional competitors, such as Vietnam,” Woranate stated.