Retail and hotel stocks set to benefit as new government revives ‘Let’s Go Halves’ scheme
Thai retail, hotel, and F&B shares rise as government plans to relaunch ‘Khon La Khrueng’ shopping subsidy to boost domestic spending.
Following the new government’s plans to relaunch the “Khon La Khrueng” (Let’s Go Halves) shopping subsidy scheme, the aim is to stimulate domestic spending and support GDP growth. The scheme is expected to operate through the Pao Tang app, leveraging its comprehensive database of eligible citizens and participating merchants.
The Thai stock market has responded positively, with shares in retail, hotel, restaurant, and food & beverage sectors gradually rising in anticipation of the stimulus measure.
Passakorn Wangwiwatcharoen, a fundamental securities analyst at Asia Plus Securities, noted that while eligible merchants will still need to be closely monitored, increased domestic spending from the scheme is expected to benefit the restaurant sector during its implementation.
He highlighted that Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited (CENTEL), which generates around 50% of its revenue from restaurants in Thailand (with net profit split roughly 59% from hotels and 41% from restaurants), stands to gain more than Minor International (MINT), where restaurants account for only 20% of revenue.
With domestic spending on the rise and the potential for additional tourism stimulus measures, Hop Inn hotels under The Erawan Group (ERW) are also expected to benefit.
The downward trend in interest rates, both in the US and Thailand, further supports the outlook. Lower US interest rates favour CENTEL, which carries the most US-dollar-denominated debt in its sector, while cuts to Thailand’s policy rate are particularly positive for ERW.
Passakorn added that investment focus should remain on companies with revenue predominantly in Thailand, as the new government’s stimulus measures, combined with the upcoming tourist season starting near October, are expected to support share prices.
Recommended stocks include CENTEL, projected to have the highest normalised profit growth in 2026, driven by a recovery in new Maldives hotels. Following are ERW and Thai Airways (THAI), with high earnings yield, while bond yield declines are expected to lift valuations.
In contrast, Airports of Thailand (AOT) and MINT, with significant EU revenue exposure, are expected to see less pronounced stock movements compared to the top three picks.
Ratasak Piriyanont, Senior Director of Research at Kasikorn Securities, added that retail, food, and beverage sectors are set to benefit from anticipated government stimulus measures, particularly the relaunch of the Let’s Go Halves scheme, with positive SSSG (Same-Store Sales Growth) expected for companies including CPALL, CPAXT, BJC, CRC, DOHOME, GLOBAL, HMPRO, OSP, CBG, SAPPE, RBF, TKN, SNNP, M, and ZEN.
Piriyaphon Kongwanich, an investment strategist at Bualuang Securities, said that the new government’s planned Let’s Go Halves scheme is expected to launch in October, with a budget reserve of around 25 billion baht. He expects the biggest beneficiaries to be wholesale product stocks such as CPAXT and BJC, followed by consumer goods stocks like OSP. Other sectors may be affected if their stores are not eligible for the scheme, as most spending is likely to flow to smaller merchants.
He added that the recommended investment strategy is for a trading buy or short-term speculation, because the scheme’s budget of 25 billion baht is relatively small compared with previous digital wallet initiatives: Phase 1 was worth 145 billion baht, and Phase 2 distributed about 20 billion baht to elderly recipients.
