Thailand set to break record China trade deficit, with 11-month gap at Bt2tn

Thailand’s trade expanded in the first 11 months of 2025, but the country is on track to post a record trade deficit with China after the gap widened beyond 2 trillion baht, driven largely by imports of machinery and electrical equipment.

Thailand’s exports in January–November 2025 totalled US$310.70 billion, up 12.6% year-on-year, while imports rose 12.4% to US$315.66 billion, leaving an overall trade deficit of US$4.95 billion.

In November 2025 alone, exports stood at US$27.44 billion, up 7.1% and marking the 17th consecutive month of growth. Imports, however, jumped 17.6% to US$30.17 billion, resulting in a monthly deficit of US$2.72 billion.

Thailand has recorded an overall trade deficit since 2022, after posting a surplus in 2021:

• 2024: deficit of US$4.78 billion
• 2023: deficit of US$3.43 billion
• 2022: deficit of US$13.60 billion
• 2021: surplus of US$4.66 billion

Record China deficit in sight

Thailand’s deficit with China has climbed steadily, and 2025 is poised to become the worst year on record. In the first 11 months of 2025, the deficit reached US$60.64 billion, or 2.02 trillion baht, surpassing the full-year deficit of US$45.36 billion in 2024.

Over the past decade, Thailand has run a continuous deficit with China, including:

• Jan–Nov 2025: US$60.64 billion (2.02 trillion baht)
• 2024: US$45.36 billion (1.61 trillion baht)
• 2023: US$36.63 billion (1.29 trillion baht)
• 2022: US$36.33 billion (1.29 trillion baht)
• 2021: US$29.28 billion (960.95 billion baht)

The Commerce Ministry has tracked Thailand’s trade balance with China since 2002, following China’s accession to the World Trade Organisation in 2001. The deficit rose steadily, and in 2015 China became the country with which Thailand recorded its largest trade deficit, worth US$17.33 billion (602.28 billion baht). 

Before then, Japan had been Thailand’s largest deficit partner, reflecting Japan’s leading role in investment promotion applications at the Board of Investment during 2002–2014.

Machinery and electrical imports top the list

The five largest import categories from China in January–November 2025 were:

• Electrical machinery and equipment (and parts) — US$33.56 billion (1.11 trillion baht), 34.52% of total imports from China
• Machinery and mechanical appliances (and parts) — US$15 billion (498.97 billion baht), 15.43%
• Plastics and articles of plastics — US$4.72 billion (157.10 billion baht), 4.86%
• Articles of iron or steel — US$4.57 billion (151.99 billion baht), 4.7%
• Pearls, precious/semi-precious stones, precious metals, jewellery, coins — US$4.20 billion (139.01 billion baht), 4.3%

NESDC warns Thailand may be a “pass-through”

Despite strong export growth, Thailand’s domestic production has not risen in step. The Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) posted year-on-year declines in six of the first 11 months of 2025, and in November 2025 it fell by 4.24%. Capacity utilisation dropped to 55.49%, the lowest level in 2025.

Danucha Pichayanan, secretary-general of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), said exports were rising but production indicators and capacity utilisation were not improving as they should—suggesting “abnormalities” in Thailand’s production system.

He pointed to two main concerns:

• “Pass-through” exports: In normal conditions, higher imports of capital goods and raw materials for production would push the MPI sharply higher—often into double-digit growth, or at least 3–5%. The lack of a corresponding rise raises questions about whether some exports are merely passing through Thailand with limited domestic processing or value-added.
   
• Import flooding: A continued inflow of foreign goods may be distorting trade figures. Danucha noted that in some months exports have risen strongly while imports have climbed almost as fast, suggesting some exports may reflect re-exports of imported goods rather than increased output from Thai factories.