Thailand’s 2025 inflation dips below zero, not deflation: TPSO

Thailand’s nationwide inflation rate averaged -0.14% in 2025, marking the first annual contraction in five years, but the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) under the Ministry of Commerce said the country has not entered deflation.

TPSO said the main drivers behind the negative reading were lower energy prices — including fuel and electricity — in line with global trends, alongside government cost-of-living relief measures. Prices of fresh vegetables and fruit also eased as more supply entered the market, while some personal-care items fell due to promotional campaigns.

TPSO Director-General Nantapong Chiralerspong said headline inflation in December remained negative for a ninth consecutive month, with declines recorded from April through December 2025. He said the prolonged negative print does not, on its own, signal deflation because the drag has largely come from energy and policy measures, while core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) remains in positive territory.

He added, however, that the trend warrants close monitoring given the risk that a slowing economy could weigh on purchasing power.

10-year snapshot (annual average inflation)

TPSO said the lowest reading in the past decade was -0.90% in 2015, largely linked to a sharp fall in global oil prices. By comparison, inflation averaged -0.85% in 2020 during the Covid-19 period, without tipping into deflation, as core inflation stayed positive and the economy still expanded.

Policy pointers

TPSO recommended measures to support purchasing power and confidence, closer market oversight to ensure adequate supplies of essential goods during disruptions, and tighter monitoring of external risks such as global price volatility and the world economic outlook. It also urged faster public spending, job creation, investment promotion and sustainable tourism to help cushion the slowdown and reduce deflation risks.