Thai Chamber sees 2026 export growth at 5%+ if reforms bite; DFT warns of price wars

Thailand’s export outlook for 2026 could improve if reforms accelerate, but speakers at a trade forum warned that global competition is intensifying and domestic growth may remain subdued.

The comments were made at the Department of Foreign Trade’s event on January 26, titled “Mission to Win for The Game Changer: ‘Win the mission, change the game fast, seize an edge in global trade’”, which featured a panel on Thailand’s trade strategy as the “rules of the game” shift.

DFT: Global growth slows as competition shifts to price and efficiency

Arada Fuangtong, Director-General of the Department of Foreign Trade, said the global economy is still growing but at a slower pace, while Thailand is expanding below the global average—reflecting weakening competitiveness amid slow global demand and oversupply from major producers.

She said this has changed global competition from a focus on product quality to price wars and production efficiency, giving an advantage to producers with lower costs and more advanced manufacturing technology. Thailand remains a capable manufacturing base, she said, but is being squeezed by a rapidly changing global market structure.

Trade rules tighten fast: CBAM, EUDR and UFLPA

Arada said international trade measures are becoming stricter and are being enforced more quickly, directly affecting Thai businesses. She cited the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which is pushing firms to invest in green technology; the EU’s deforestation regulation (EUDR), which requires agricultural products to be deforestation-free; and the US Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA), which tightens scrutiny of forced labour and supply-chain traceability.

She added that pressure has increased as major powers accelerate industrial subsidies—pointing to China’s support at 4.4% of GDP in 2025, which she said exceeded Thailand’s entire GDP—leaving Thailand squeezed between low-cost competition and tougher trade countermeasures. She also noted Thailand’s role in the global economy is shifting from being seen as a safe production base to becoming a competitor in more industries.

Thai Chamber: Thailand’s five-year growth trails rivals

Dr Chanin Chalisarapong, vice chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said Thailand’s economy continues to face significant challenges, with growth potential still not reaching 5%.

Over the past five years, Thailand’s economy expanded by around 1.8 trillion baht, he said, compared with about 5 trillion baht for Vietnam—almost twice Thailand’s growth—while Singapore expanded around four times more, reflecting structural constraints in both the economy and politics.

Exports and agriculture strengthened in 2025; 2026 exports seen above 5%

Dr Chanin said Thailand’s agricultural sector and exports performed well in 2025, supporting the baht, which he said strengthened by an average of about 7% on the back of export growth.

He said exports in 2026 could grow by more than 5%, arguing Thailand still has significant opportunities if it accelerates structural reforms—especially tackling corruption, pursuing transparent policymaking, reducing trade barriers and prioritising exchange-rate stability.

He added that Thailand’s agricultural and food products could generate export value of at least 200 billion baht per year.

FTI: China’s oversupply forces Thailand to find niches and fix structural problems

Kitti Tangjitramaneesakda, vice chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), said China can now produce almost every type of product and has oversupplied the global market, inevitably affecting Thailand and key export destinations. Competing with China is difficult, he said, because Chinese products are both good quality and low priced.

Thailand must adapt quickly, he said, by identifying products China does not yet produce—or is not strong in—and analysing Thailand’s strengths so industrial promotion targets the right areas, warning that misdirected support could become investment that fails to deliver results.

Kitti said that although exports grew strongly in 2025, domestic production indices declined even as outbound shipments increased—partly because some exports were allegedly transhipped or falsely claimed as Thai origin—which he described as a crisis. He urged the government to urgently tackle corruption, calling it a major obstacle to economic development, and urged relevant ministries to act transparently and prioritise national interest over political or personal gains.

He also said outdated laws and regulations slow operations and raise business costs across production and exports, leaving Thailand with higher costs and lower efficiency than competitors. Regulatory reform, he said, would require genuine commitment from government leaders.

Kitti proposed that Thai industry should accelerate new product development, add value by processing agricultural goods, prioritise green products, and expand to new export markets—especially Africa and India—to strengthen the economy over the long term.

KKP: Growth may slow to 1.5–1.8% despite export gains

Dr Phiphat Luengnaruemitchai, chief economist at Kiatnakin Phatra Financial Group (KKP), said export figures can look positive but remain uncertain and have not always translated into broad-based gains for Thailand’s economy.

He said Thailand’s economy is likely to slow from last year’s pace. While it expanded by around 2% last year, he noted the Bank of Thailand has assessed growth at 1.5% this year, while market expectations are around 1.6–1.8%—significantly below global growth and marking the fourth or fifth consecutive year Thailand has grown more slowly than the world.

Three constraints: tourism, competitiveness and tight credit

Dr Phiphat cited three main drags on Thailand’s outlook:

1. Tourism, which has not fully recovered;
2. Industrial competitiveness, especially in core sectors such as automotive and electronics, facing intense international competition while new investment remains weak; and
3. Tight credit conditions, with lenders remaining cautious, limiting recovery in durable-goods consumption such as cars and housing.

Ageing demographics add longer-term risk

He also warned of structural headwinds, particularly Thailand’s shift into an ageing society, which could slow domestic demand and market expansion. Without faster investment, productivity upgrades and development of new industries, he said Thailand risks becoming stuck in a prolonged period of low growth.

Outlook: export upside, but reforms and competitiveness are decisive

Speakers said Thailand’s export momentum offers an opportunity, but sustaining growth will depend on reducing corruption and trade barriers, improving industrial competitiveness, adapting to tighter global rules, and keeping financial conditions supportive—while preparing for the longer-term challenge of an ageing population.