Thailand’s January inflation falls 0.66% for 10th straight month

Thailand’s headline consumer price index (CPI) stood at 99.91 in January 2026, down from 100.57 in January 2025, pushing headline inflation to -0.66% year-on-year and extending the country’s run of negative inflation to a tenth consecutive month, Natthiya Sujinda, deputy director-general of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office, said on Thursday.

Headline CPI at 99.91; inflation -0.66% y/y

Natthiya said the decline was driven primarily by lower prices in the energy category, including fuel and electricity tariffs, which eased in line with global energy market conditions.

Energy prices, state measures and promotions push prices down

She said the slide in energy prices was reinforced by government measures aimed at easing the cost-of-living burden. Prices in the personal care category also continued to fall, supported by marketing campaigns and promotions run by manufacturers and businesses.

Food and non-alcoholic drinks rise on vegetables, beverages and ready meals

In contrast, the food and non-alcoholic beverages category recorded an increase, mainly due to higher prices for fresh vegetables, non-alcoholic drinks, and ready-to-eat foods. Prices of other goods and services, Natthiya said, had only a limited impact on the inflation picture overall.

Thailand among lowest inflation rates globally and in ASEAN

On international comparisons, Natthiya said the latest available data for December 2025 showed Thailand’s headline inflation at -0.28%. Thailand ranked as the 7th-lowest out of 127 economies that had reported figures and the 2nd-lowest among ASEAN economies that had released data: Brunei, Singapore, Timor-Leste, Malaysia, the Philippines, Cambodia, Indonesia, Vietnam and Laos.

February outlook: oil, power bills, stronger baht seen keeping inflation down

Looking ahead to February 2026, Natthiya said headline inflation is expected to remain lower, with downward pressure coming from several factors:

• Dubai crude oil prices in the global market remain below year-earlier levels. She added that the Fuel Fund Executive Committee has approved a reduction in diesel contributions to the oil fuel fund, helping keep domestic fuel prices below last year’s level.
• The government is continuing cost-of-living relief measures, particularly a reduction in the Ft charge for January–April 2026 to 9.72 satang per unit, bringing the electricity tariff down to 3.88 baht per unit.
• A stronger baht is expected to lower import costs, especially for oil, which has a high weighting in Thailand’s inflation basket.
• Major operators are expected to continue promotional campaigns in response to economic conditions and heightened competition.

Upside risks: farm goods and car excise tax

Natthiya said there are also factors that could push inflation higher, including signs that prices of some agricultural products may be higher than a year earlier—particularly fresh vegetables, which have continued to rise. She also pointed to higher car prices linked to the 2026 excise tax on vehicles.

Commerce Ministry keeps 2026 inflation forecast at 0.0%–1.0%

Based on the balance of factors, the Commerce Ministry has maintained its forecast for Thailand’s headline inflation in 2026 at 0.0%–1.0% (midpoint 0.5%). The ministry expects inflation to average -0.43% in the first quarter, before turning positive at 0.34% in the second quarter, rising to 0.90% in the third quarter and 1.15% in the fourth quarter.