Government targets ‘3-plus’ GDP growth on investment momentum

‘3-plus’ target powered by late-2025 investment momentum

Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas said the government is aiming for “3-plus” GDP growth in 2026, driven mainly by continued investment momentum from the fourth quarter of 2025.

He said he is confident the Thai economy will expand by more than 2% in 2026, while policy efforts will focus on pushing growth above 3%.

Global volatility the key challenge

Ekniti said the main risk to watch is volatility in the global economy—an external factor Thailand cannot control. He compared Thailand’s economy to “a patient who has left the ICU”, saying the next step is to build strength so it can “run at full potential” again.

Using a second analogy, he said Thailand has already “pulled the car out of the mud”, and the next phase is to make it run faster—positioning 2026 as a year of continued investment.

Q4 2025 beat forecast as investment surged

Thailand’s economy grew 2.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025, above the Fiscal Policy Office’s (FPO) earlier forecast of 1.8%, which Ekniti described as a turning point that helped the economy move beyond a slowdown and set a positive trajectory for 2026.

He said investment was a key driver: overall investment expanded 8.1%, led by public investment growth of 13%. This, he added, helped lift private-sector confidence, with private investment rising 6%.

Ekniti pointed to the BOI “Fast Pass” as one of the measures intended to remove bottlenecks and speed up foreign investment inflows.

Consumption improved on stimulus measures

He said private consumption also supported growth in the fourth quarter of 2025, rising 3.3%, compared with an average of 2.5% in the first three quarters.

He attributed the pickup to stimulus measures including Khon La Khrueng Plus (co-payment scheme), Tiew Dee Mee Kuen (travel tax rebate scheme), and higher top-ups for state welfare card holders.

Nominal GDP neared 19 trillion baht; ratings confidence held

Ekniti said the fourth-quarter performance helped push Thailand’s nominal GDP close to 19 trillion baht (about 18.97 trillion baht), around 300 billion baht higher than previously estimated—reflecting stronger money circulation and improved incomes toward the end of the year.

He added that S&P (Standard & Poor’s) maintained confidence in Thailand’s fiscal and economic stability in its assessment released in November. Thailand’s current account balance last year also remained in surplus at about 3.1% of GDP, he said, underscoring continued strength in the external sector.