Thailand’s February CPI falls 0.88% as energy prices drag inflation down
Thailand’s headline inflation stayed negative for an 11th month in February 2026, driven by cheaper fuel and capped electricity tariffs, though core inflation remained positive, the Trade Policy and Strategy Office said.
CPI down for 11th month on fuel, power and fresh food
Nantapong Chiralerspong, director-general of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO), said the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) in February 2026 stood at 99.67, down 0.88% year on year. The decline extended the run of negative inflation to 11 consecutive months and marked the lowest level in 11 months.
He said the main drag came from the energy category, as fuel prices fell after higher compensation from the Oil Fuel Fund, while electricity tariffs were held at an average of 3.88 baht per unit. Fresh food prices also eased on oversupply, including pork, eggs, durian, Namwa bananas and watermelon.
Ready-to-eat meals edge up as core inflation stays positive
TPSO noted that some items in the food and non-alcoholic beverages category, especially beverages and ready-to-eat meals, have gradually increased.
Core inflation rose 0.56%, TPSO said, signalling that purchasing power has not contracted and that Thailand has not entered deflation.
Dubai crude flagged as key risk with three inflation scenarios
TPSO said a major risk factor is Dubai crude, which is used as a benchmark for Thailand’s energy costs. Energy accounts for about 12% of the inflation basket, while the transport, communications and vehicles category carries a weight of 22.25%.
If oil prices rise further, TPSO warned costs could be passed through to fares, freight charges and goods prices, particularly ready-to-eat meals, which carry a weight of around 16% and tend to rise quickly but fall slowly once energy costs increase.
TPSO set out three scenarios based on Dubai crude prices:
- US$80 a barrel: full-year inflation seen at 1–2%
- US$100 a barrel: inflation seen at 2–3%, with ready-to-eat meal prices starting to rise in around 20% of areas nationwide
- US$120 a barrel: inflation could exceed 3%, with ready-to-eat meal price increases potentially covering more than half the country
Commerce Ministry keeps 1–3% forecast, steps up monitoring
The Commerce Ministry kept its 2026 inflation forecast at 1–3%, based on an assumed average oil price of US$80 a barrel. It also said Thailand has oil reserves sufficient for at least 60 days, and instructed provincial commerce offices to ensure single-dish meal prices do not rise unreasonably.
TPSO said it will closely monitor first-quarter developments, including core inflation, employment and consumer confidence, and will consider whether the 2026 inflation framework should be reviewed once March impacts become clearer.
