Thailand’s power tariff may rise to Bt3.95 in May-August cycle

Worawit Srianunraksa, a commissioner at the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC), said electricity tariffs are likely to rise in the next billing cycle in line with higher fuel costs, particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG), which has become highly volatile amid unrest in the Middle East.

He said European buyers are also stepping up LNG stockpiling to guard against war-related risks and winter demand, adding further pressure to prices on the global market.

In his personal view, power tariffs should reflect actual costs. Although the government may choose to keep electricity prices capped to ease the burden on households, he said the real cost structure should still be communicated clearly to businesses and industrial users so they can adjust and accelerate energy-saving measures.

Three Ft tariff scenarios under review

The ERC has prepared three possible calculations for the fuel tariff (Ft) for the next period.

Under the first scenario, which fully reflects actual costs and includes the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand’s (EGAT) outstanding debt of 36 billion baht, the power tariff would rise to 4.59 baht per unit, up 70 satang.

Under the second scenario, which excludes repayment of EGAT’s outstanding debt, the tariff would stand at 4.08 baht per unit, an increase of 20 satang.

Under the third scenario, 9.4 billion baht in “callback” funds would be used to help reduce the burden, while EGAT’s debt would still not be repaid. In that case, the tariff would edge up slightly to 3.95 baht per unit, or 7 satang higher.

However, the figures are not yet final, as officials are still waiting to reassess LNG prices on March 23-24 before submitting the matter to the ERC board on March 25 and opening it for public consultation.

A source said policymakers have signalled that they want to keep the tariff at 3.88 baht per unit, potentially through support mechanisms aimed at easing the burden on the public despite mounting energy costs.

Even so, EGAT continues to shoulder accumulated debt from past efforts to hold down electricity prices, along with rising interest costs. Without gradual repayment, this could affect its long-term financial stability.

Warning over late-year rise above Bt4

Worawit said the greater concern lies in the September-December 2026 tariff period, which could see electricity prices rise above 4 baht per unit if the war continues and winter pushes up LNG demand, while Thailand still lacks sufficient tools to stabilise prices.

He added that many businesses have signed sales contracts based on low electricity costs. A sharp rise in tariffs could therefore immediately hit operating costs and undermine competitiveness.

The ERC has proposed that the government allocate budget support for vulnerable groups using no more than 200-300 units of electricity a month, while other users should gradually face the real cost of power.

Worawit also estimated that LNG production facilities in Qatar damaged by attacks could take three to five years to return to normal output. Thailand has long-term LNG import contracts with Qatar for around 2 million tonnes a year, meaning continued volatility remains a risk factor for future electricity tariffs.

The ERC Office is due to announce the official tariff calculation for the new period on March 25 before opening a public hearing ahead of the formal implementation of electricity rates for May-August 2026.