Thai hotels expect foreign guest numbers to decline in Q2 2026
The long-haul, short-haul and Chinese markets are expected to weaken, while April occupancy is forecast at 62% and May at 52%.
- The Thai Hotels Association expects most hotels, particularly those rated four-star and above, to experience a decline in foreign guest numbers during the second quarter of 2026 compared to the previous year.
- The anticipated drop is largely driven by unrest in the Middle East, which has increased tourism costs, such as airfare, and reduced traveler confidence, especially in the long-haul market.
- Significant declines are also expected from short-haul markets, with a majority of surveyed hotels predicting a drop in visitors from China and other nearby countries.
- This negative outlook is supported by forecasted average hotel occupancy rates for April (62%) and May (52%) of 2026, which are both down from the same period last year.
Thienprasit Chaiyapatranun, president of the Thai Hotels Association, said most hotel businesses, particularly four-star hotels and above, expected overall foreign guest numbers in the second quarter of 2026 to decline from the same period last year.
For the “long-haul” market, more than 34% of survey respondents expected a drop of more than 20%, while another 28% said it was likely to fall by 11-20%.
This meant more than 62% expected a decline of more than 10%, driven by unrest in the Middle East, which had pushed up tourism costs, including higher air fares, and reduced travel confidence.
For the “short-haul” market, excluding China, more than 22% of survey respondents expected a decline of more than 20% in the second quarter, while another 30% said it was likely to fall by 11-20%.
A further 18% said it was likely to decline by no more than 10%.
Looking only at the “Chinese market”, 17% of survey respondents expected travel to Thailand to fall by more than 30%, while 11% expected a decline of 21-30%.
Another 23% expected a fall of 11-20%, and a further 16% expected a decline of no more than 10%.
“However, about 10% of hotels, particularly those rated no higher than three stars, assessed that the number of Chinese guests and short-haul customers may trend upwards. This is partly due to easing concerns over safety in the country, and they may also benefit from customers switching their destination to Thailand instead.”
For the “occupancy rate” in April 2026, the average was forecast at 62%, down from the previous month and from the same period last year, while the forecast for May 2026 stood at 52%, lower than last year.
A regional breakdown of the occupancy rate in April 2026 showed that the North averaged 40%, down from 44% in March.
The East recorded 65%, slightly down from 66%, while the Central region stood at 63%, down from 75%, and the South at 67%, down from 76%.
Thienprasit added that the overall tourism situation in Thailand in April 2026 was positive, as the “Songkran Festival” continued to attract lively travel by both Thai and foreign tourists, helping distribute income to the tourism sector.
At the beginning of May 2026, the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) and related agencies held a readiness meeting to move forward with efforts to drive Thailand’s tourism industry through the “Amazing Thailand Grand Sale 2026” project, offering discounts and privileges to foreign tourists in both main cities and cities worth visiting from June to August 2026, the Green Season.
The main areas for activities are Bangkok, Chon Buri (Pattaya), Chiang Mai, Udon Thani, Phuket and Songkhla (Hat Yai), to accelerate spending and support the “Unforgettable Experience” campaign to create positive experiences for tourists.
The Thai Hotels Association said it hoped that, although tourism had to face pressure from negative factors linked to the “conflict in the Middle East”, which directly affected travel confidence and costs worldwide and was difficult to control, strategies based on co-operation across all parts of the tourism industry would be able to drive tourism and help sustain quality economic growth.
For the “assistance measures” operators wanted from the government, most hotels wanted the following:
- Tourism and revenue stimulus measures: Measures to stimulate domestic tourism and attract foreign tourists, especially short-haul markets, such as assistance with travel expenses. They also wanted more publicity and promotion of tourism in both main and secondary cities, including more government and private-sector meetings and seminars, more recreational activities, and stronger confidence in safety.
- Cost assistance measures: Reduced energy costs, with tax reduction measures such as corporate income tax, personal income tax and house and land tax.
- Financial measures: Liquidity assistance, such as soft-loan measures for hotel renovations and support for investment in sustainable energy.
- Labour measures: Training to provide knowledge on standards, such as building standards.
- Other measures: Facilitation for permit applications or various inspections, such as building inspections, and solving the problem of unfair fares.
