AI boom masks global trade slowdown as UNCTAD cuts growth forecast to 1.5%
UNCTAD warns that global trade growth could slow sharply to 1.5-2.5% this year, as the AI boom cools and the real economy loses momentum.
A warning sign is emerging from the fragile recovery in global trade, after the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, or UNCTAD, warned that the AI boom may be creating an illusion that masks a broader slowdown in the real economy.
The report said the seemingly strong expansion of global trade from 2025 into early 2026 was driven mainly by concentrated investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure and AI-related products. Other sectors, however, have shown much weaker growth momentum and have clearly underperformed expectations.
This trend is reflected in statistics from major economies.
In the United States, imports of “automatic data processing machines”, including servers and high-performance computing systems, surged to account for as much as three-quarters of total growth in US commodity imports, which rose by 4% in 2025.
In China, imports of AI-related technology products grew strongly enough to offset almost entirely the sharp decline in imports of more than 5,000 other product categories.
Across major regions, including East Asia, North America and Europe, trade in AI-related goods in 2025 posted double- to triple-digit growth, far exceeding expectations.
UNCTAD cuts global trade growth forecast to just 1.5-2.5%
Although tech-driven manufacturing acted as a key support for the global economy in 2025, helping it expand by nearly 3% and allowing emerging markets in Asia, including China, to post stronger industrial output than developed economies, UNCTAD believes this momentum is now fading.
The agency has sharply lowered its projected growth for global trade in real terms in 2026 to just 1.5-2.5%, down from 4.7% in 2025.
UNCTAD said the weakening outlook for global trade was being driven by four main negative factors: slowing global aggregate demand, weaker investment, prolonged uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. Most importantly, it said the AI boom had passed its peak and was now entering a cooling phase.
A broader look at trade beyond the big-tech sector shows clear signs of concern. Traditional goods, such as basic consumer products, textiles and intermediate goods, have recorded only modest increases, while logistics and machinery-related goods have also weakened.
Moreover, global trade’s heavy reliance on AI-related investment has increased its vulnerability to external shocks, particularly war and escalating military conflict in the Middle East. These pressures have affected energy markets, disrupted commercial shipping routes and inevitably pushed up freight rates and trade costs.
UNCTAD concluded that the global economy in 2026 is likely to face a genuine slowdown. Pressure from energy prices and market volatility is expected to push investors towards safe-haven assets, further weakening purchasing power and investment flows in the system.
Although the AI sector may still retain some growth momentum, the broader global economic recovery has already lost its boost and is running out of steam.
