Thailand edges closer to leaving US Treasury monitoring list
Thailand meets only one US Treasury monitoring criterion after its current-account surplus fell below the threshold, improving its prospects of leaving the list.
- Thailand has improved its position by meeting only one of the three US Treasury criteria for its monitoring list, down from two in the previous assessment.
- The improvement is due to its current-account surplus falling to 2.8% of GDP, which is now below the US Treasury's 3% threshold.
- The sole criterion Thailand still meets is its large trade surplus with the United States, but the country could be removed from the watchlist in the next review if its status holds.
Thailand remains on the US Treasury’s monitoring list but now meets only one of the three assessment criteria, improving its prospects for removal in the next review, according to the Bank of Thailand.
Chayawadee Chai-anant, assistant governor of the central bank’s Corporate Relations Group and its spokesperson, explained that the latest US Treasury report, released on July 24, 2026, marked an improvement from the previous assessment.
Thailand now meets only the criterion covering its large trade surplus with the United States. It no longer exceeds the threshold for its current-account surplus, reducing the number of criteria it meets from two to one.
The Bank of Thailand has initially assessed that the country could be removed from the monitoring list in the next review if it continues to meet only one criterion and does not cross either of the other thresholds.
The central bank will continue to follow the US Treasury’s assessments closely, Chayawadee added.
US Treasury assessment criteria
The US Treasury reviews the trade and exchange-rate policies of major trading partners every six months, using data covering the preceding 12 months.
Countries are assessed against three main criteria:
- A goods and services trade surplus with the United States exceeding US$15 billion.
- A current-account surplus exceeding 3% of gross domestic product.
- Persistent foreign-exchange intervention involving net foreign-currency purchases exceeding 2% of GDP, with net purchases recorded in more than eight of the preceding 12 months.
A country that meets two of the three criteria is placed on the monitoring list, allowing the US Treasury to examine its trade and exchange-rate policies more closely.
Thailand drops below current-account threshold
In the previous assessment, which used data from July 2024 to June 2025, Thailand met two criteria: its goods and services trade surplus with the United States and its current-account surplus.
The July 24 report showed that Thailand now meets only the bilateral trade-surplus criterion after its current-account surplus fell from 3.8% to 2.8% of GDP. The latest figure is below the US Treasury’s threshold of more than 3% of GDP.
Thailand nevertheless continues to meet the trade criterion, with its goods and services surplus with the United States reaching US$72 billion. The large surplus reflects Thailand’s position as a major manufacturing base for several industries exporting to the US market.
US views BOT measures as stability tools
The latest US Treasury report also examined measures introduced by the Bank of Thailand to manage capital flows and preserve financial-system stability.
These included the relaxation of rules governing the repatriation of overseas income and the supervision of gold transactions, which form part of the central bank’s efforts to manage volatility in the baht.
The US Treasury assessed that the measures were primarily intended to limit exchange-rate volatility and support financial stability rather than give Thailand an unfair trade advantage.
This assessment indicates that Thailand’s regulation of capital movements and gold-market transactions is viewed as part of a financial-stability framework rather than an attempt to weaken the baht to support exports.
Trade surplus remains central to next review
Despite meeting only one criterion in the latest assessment, Thailand remains on the monitoring list because the US Treasury requires countries added to the list to remain under observation for at least two consecutive review rounds.
The next US Treasury assessment will again examine data covering a continuous 12-month period.
The Bank of Thailand considers removal from the monitoring list possible if the country continues to meet only one of the three criteria and does not again exceed the current-account threshold or meet the test for persistent foreign-exchange intervention.
Thailand’s US$72 billion trade surplus with the United States will remain a key issue, particularly as Washington intensifies its trade-policy reviews and examines its commercial relationships with major trading partners.
Although Thailand’s position has improved, policymakers will still need to balance export growth to the United States with the management of bilateral trade relations, the baht, and capital flows in a manner consistent with domestic macroeconomic stability.
Source: Thansettakij
