Thai Property Transfers Plunge 9.3% in Nine Months, Recovery Hinges on Government Stimulus
REIC reports Q3 demand recovery driven by fee cuts and low interest rates; Forecasts 13% spike in Q4 as 'Quick Big Win' measures take effect
- Thai residential property transfers fell by 9.3% in volume and 12.4% in value during the first nine months of 2025 compared to the previous year.
- A modest recovery began in the third quarter, driven by initial government stimulus measures such as reduced transfer fees, relaxed loan-to-value (LTV) rules, and low interest rates.
- A stronger recovery is forecast for the fourth quarter, with an expected 13.1% quarterly increase in property transfers, contingent on a new, broader stimulus package.
- This future recovery hinges on the success of the government's "Quick Big Win" measures, which aim to boost consumer spending, resolve household debt, and support the overall economy.
REIC reports Q3 demand recovery driven by fee cuts and low interest rates; Forecasts 13% spike in Q4 as 'Quick Big Win' measures take effect.
The Thai property market recorded a significant decline in activity over the first nine months of 2025, but the industry is banking on government stimulus to drive a strong recovery in the final quarter, according to the Real Estate Information Center (REIC).
Accumulated residential ownership transfers across Thailand from January to September fell by 9.3% in volume (227,106 units) and 12.4% in value (617.7 billion baht) year-on-year (YoY), reflecting persistently sluggish consumer purchasing power.
The contraction was seen across all housing types, with the condominium sector performing particularly poorly, recording a 13.3% drop in unit transfers and a 19.3% fall in value (YoY).
However, Kamonpob Weerapala, managing director of the Government Housing Bank (GHB) and acting Director of the REIC, noted that the third quarter showed signs of a turnaround.
Total property transfers nationwide increased by 9.1% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to 84,397 units in Q3 2025.
This initial rebound was primarily attributed to dual factors: targeted government policy interventions and market flexibility. The government’s contribution included:
Fee Reductions: Lowering housing transfer and mortgage registration fees to 0.01% for homes under 7 million baht.
LTV Relaxation: Eased Loan-to-Value (LTV) criteria.
Low Interest Rates: Continued low policy interest rates, which boosted consumer confidence.
Crucially, developers contributed by starting to adjust prices flexibly to match the affordability of buyers who were seeking owner-occupied housing.
Demand growth was recorded across all price points, with new low-rise homes priced under 1 million baht experiencing a sharp 37% increase in transfer rates.
The REIC now forecasts a robust recovery for the sector in Q4 2025, driven by the government’s broad fiscal stimulus package known as the "Quick Big Win" measures, which are expected to inject confidence into the economy.
These comprehensive initiatives include:
Direct Consumer Support: Schemes to boost domestic purchasing power, such as the 'Khon La Khrueng Plus' (co-payment) scheme, and tax breaks for domestic tourism.
Economic Lubrication: Accelerated government budget disbursement and investment in clean energy projects.
Debt Resolution: Measures aimed at resolving the critical issue of household debt, including the establishment of an Asset Management Company (AMC) and the restructuring of non-performing household loans.
SME Support: Additional measures to support Small and Medium-sized Enterprises.
"The government's 'Quick Big Win' measures will contribute to increased GDP, benefiting the entire economic system and underpinning the real estate sector’s revival," Kamonpob stated.
The forecast predicts total Q4 property transfers will reach 95,484 units, representing a significant 13.1% increase QoQ.The value of new individual housing loans is also expected to rise by 9.5% in the quarter, reaching approximately 160.7 billion baht.
