Thai condo market faces pressure as property developers slow launches
New condo supply rose in the first quarter, but weak purchasing power, higher oil prices and tight lending are weighing on demand.
- Property developers are slowing new condominium launches due to economic pressures, including international conflicts raising oil prices, weak domestic consumer purchasing power, and political uncertainty.
- In response to weak demand, developers are adjusting strategy by delaying projects, lowering average selling prices, and focusing on more affordable units in outlying areas.
- A major challenge compounding the market pressure is a high loan rejection rate of 50-60% from strict financial institutions, creating a significant obstacle to closing sales.
- Amid domestic weakness, the market is looking to foreign buyers—such as retirees and investors seeking long-term residence—as a key source of hope for recovery.
Thailand’s condominium market in 2026 is facing pressure from all sides, including the domestic economy and external factors, particularly tensions between Iran, the United States and Israel that have pushed oil prices higher, significantly affecting the cost of goods and services as well as the cost of living for Thai consumers.
The situation has prompted consumers to delay spending and become more cautious about buying big-ticket items, especially housing.
At the same time, delays in forming the government early in the year further undermined private-sector confidence, causing investment and new project launches to slow, despite state stimulus measures such as a reduction in transfer fees for homes priced at no more than THB7 million and an easing of loan-to-value (LTV) rules.
Surachet Kongcheep, head of research and consulting at Cushman & Wakefield Thailand, said about 7,170 new condominium units were launched for sale in the first quarter of 2026, an increase from the previous quarter because of the launch of large-scale projects.
However, the rise in supply did not reflect real demand, as consumer purchasing power remained weak.
Although the market showed some positive signs in the first two months of the year, with several projects attracting strong interest, consumer confidence fell again after oil prices rose because of international conflict.
Developers therefore adjusted their strategy to “delay new project launches”, and new condominium launches in 2026 are expected to total only 15,000–18,000 units.
The direction of the market in the second half of the year will still depend largely on economic factors and the war situation.
On pricing, the market has begun to show a structural downward adjustment.
The average selling price of newly launched condominiums in the first quarter of 2026 was about THB84,500 per square metre, down significantly from the previous quarter, as developers shifted towards projects in outlying locations and more affordable price segments.
Many projects were priced below THB80,000 per square metre to match weaker purchasing power.
This trend reflects the market’s adjustment towards the mass segment, with developers choosing to launch only projects with clear locations and concepts while slowing investment in areas facing oversupply.
At the same time, the foreign buyer market is beginning to return as a key source of hope, especially among groups seeking long-term residence and looking to move investment funds for safety.
Thailand remains a major destination because of the Longstay Visa policy for condominium buyers purchasing units worth THB3 million or more, through cooperation with Thailand Longstay Management Co., Ltd.
Key locations attracting interest include Bangkok, Phuket, Chiang Mai and Pattaya.
The main target groups are retirees, investors and digital nomads seeking to avoid geopolitical uncertainty.
On costs, although oil and construction material prices have risen, the impact on housing prices remains limited because construction materials account for only 25–30% of project value.
If costs rise by 10–20%, total costs would be affected by only 2.5–6%, which developers can still manage.
However, if costs continue to rise over the long term, this could create pressure for future selling price adjustments.
Another major challenge is access to credit, as financial institutions remain strict in lending.
This has kept the loan rejection rate at 50–60%, making it a major obstacle to closing sales, more so than pricing.
Overall, the condominium market in 2026 is in a holding pattern amid pressure from all sides.
Developers need to adjust their strategies on pricing, products and customer groups, while hopes for recovery remain closely tied to external factors, including the global economy, energy prices and domestic political stability.
