Gold surges past US$4,100, eyes US$5,000 amid US-China trade war fears

According to Reuters, spot gold climbed 0.9% to US$4,145.85 per ounce at 1.50pm Eastern Time (5.50pm GMT), after touching an all-time peak of US$4,179.48 earlier in the session. US gold futures for December delivery rose 0.7% to settle at US$4,163.40 per ounce.

Gold has gained around 57% so far this year, breaching the US$4,100 threshold for the first time on Monday. The surge has been fuelled by a mix of factors — including geopolitical uncertainty, expectations of lower US interest rates, strong central bank buying, and hefty inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Analysts at Bank of America and Societe Generale forecast that gold prices could reach US$5,000 per ounce in 2026.

“Rising trade tensions between the US and China, the ongoing government shutdown, and expectations of further monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) are all supporting gold prices,” said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

He added that the risk of President Donald Trump imposing 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, tit-for-tat port fees by the two largest economies, and growing efforts to reduce reliance on the US dollar could propel gold to US$5,000 per ounce by mid-2026.

Trump is scheduled to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea later this month, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday.

Gold, which offers no yield, tends to perform well in a low interest rate environment. Markets are widely expecting a 0.25% rate cut at the Fed’s meeting later this month, followed by another similar reduction in December.

“Based on the data we have, the outlook for employment and inflation does not appear to have changed much since our September meeting,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a speech at the annual National Association for Business Economics conference.

Spot silver, which has benefited from the same factors boosting gold, surged to a record US$53.60 per ounce before easing 0.9% to US$51.86. Platinum dipped 0.3% to US$1,640.76, while palladium climbed 3.2% to US$1,521.50.

Jamie Dimon says holding gold makes sense, could reach US$10,000

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co., said he sees “good reason” to hold gold in investment portfolios, though he declined to comment on whether its current price is overvalued after gold surged to a record high above US$4,100 per ounce on Tuesday.

“In this kind of environment, gold could easily rise to US$5,000 or even US$10,000. This is one of the few times in my life when it actually makes sense to have gold in your portfolio,” Dimon said during Fortune’s Most Powerful Women Summit.

Dimon also shared his outlook on broader market conditions, noting that “asset prices are quite high — and in my view, that covers almost everything right now.”

His comments echoed growing market concerns. Last week, Citadel founder and billionaire investor Kenneth Griffin warned that investors are beginning to see “gold as safer than the dollar,” calling it a deeply worrying sign.

At the same time, Dimon cautioned that the US economy is facing rising uncertainty.

“There remains a high level of uncertainty stemming from complex geopolitical conditions, tariff and trade concerns, elevated asset prices, and the risk of persistent inflation — all of which are challenges that must be closely monitored,” he said.

Update (October 15, 2025)

Bloomberg reported that spot gold rose a further 0.5% to US$4,162.98 per ounce at 7.32am Singapore time. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index held steady, while silver gained nearly 1%. Platinum and palladium also edged higher.

Gold bullion reached a record US$4,179.70 on Tuesday, while spot silver rebounded after volatile trading — briefly surpassing US$53.54 per ounce before retreating amid signs that the historic tightness in the physical market may be easing.

US Treasury yields fell to multi-week lows after Powell signalled that the Fed is preparing to cut interest rates by another 0.25% this month. Lower yields and borrowing costs typically support non-yielding precious metals like gold.