Gold hits record $4,100/oz amid US-China trade tensions, analysts eye $5,000 next year

Spot gold prices surged 1.8% to $4,106.48 per ounce on Monday, hitting an all-time high of $4,116.77, driven by renewed US-China trade tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. US gold futures for December delivery also jumped 3.3% to $4,133 per ounce.

Gold has risen 56% so far this year, crossing $4,000 per ounce for the first time last week, supported by geopolitical uncertainty, economic pressures, Fed rate cut expectations, and continued central bank purchases worldwide.

Phillip Streible, Chief Market Strategist at Blue Line Futures, said, “Gold may continue to climb. We could see prices surpass $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026.” He highlighted structural support from central bank buying, strong ETF inflows, US-China trade tensions, and lower US interest rate trends.

Geopolitically, US President Donald Trump reignited trade tensions with China on Friday, ending the fragile truce between the world’s two largest economies.

Investors estimate a 97% probability of a 0.25% Fed rate cut in October, with a 100% chance of another reduction in December. As a non-yielding asset, gold is expected to perform strongly in a low-interest-rate environment.

Bank of America and Société Générale analysts forecast gold could reach $5,000 per ounce in 2026, while Standard Chartered raised its average gold price projection to $4,488 next year. Suki Cooper, Head of Global Commodities Research at Standard Chartered, noted that the current rebound is highly probable, with short-term corrections potentially supporting long-term gains.

Silver spot prices also climbed 3.1% to $51.82 per ounce, reaching a record $52.12 earlier in the session, buoyed by the same market pressures as gold. Technical indicators show both metals are overbought, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 80 for gold and 83 for silver.

Platinum rose 3.9% to $1,648.25 per ounce, while palladium jumped 5.2% to $1,478.94 per ounce.