Thai Gold Price Volatility Expected to Continue, With New 64,000 Baht Peak Forecast

 

The Thai gold market is gripped by volatility, with experts predicting a potential new peak of 64,000 baht per baht-weight by the end of 2025.

 

This aggressive forecast is driven by a confluence of geopolitical and economic factors, most notably renewed trade war fears between the US and China, the threat of a US Government Shutdown, and speculation over upcoming interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve.

 

Gold prices are seeing a sustained long-term rally despite immediate short-term headwinds, which include an appreciation of the US Dollar and positive developments in ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas.

 

Analysts from MTS Gold Mae Thongsuk and the Gold Traders Association offered their forecasts and insights as the gold market attempts to consolidate gains after a strong run last week, prompting a significant surge in the domestic spot price today (October 14, 2025).

 

 

 

Experts Raise Price Targets

Jitti Tangsitpakdee, president of the Gold Traders Association, confirmed that the sharp rise in price was partly triggered by safe-haven buying following U.S.

 

President Donald Trump's threat to impose an additional 100 per cent tariff on China. This came after China announced export controls on rare earth minerals.

 

“The gold price trend is still bullish,” Jitti stated. "Because the price rose faster and sharper than expected, we have revised our forecast, anticipating that the global gold price will hit $4,300 per ounce by the end of this year, while the Thai gold price will be around 64,000 baht per Baht-weight."

 

On the risk of a market bubble, Jitti said no signs were present, explaining that rapid price fluctuations were normal, driven by the weak dollar and the Fed’s rate cut outlook.

 

 

Short-Term Pressure and Support

For the coming week (October 13 – 17, 2025), MTS Gold Mae Thongsuk forecasts that the Thai gold price will move within a tighter range of 61,000 - 62,500 baht.

 

The firm noted that while the long-term outlook remains bullish, the market is currently in a profit-taking phase, pressured by receding safe-haven demand due to the Israel-Hamas ceasefire progress.

 

A strengthening US Dollar is also weighing on the price.

 

However, support remains strong:

 

US Political Uncertainty: The ongoing threat of a Government Shutdown in the US is forcing investors toward safe-haven assets.

 

Fed Policy: Expectations of two further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve later this year are boosting gold.

 

Institutional Demand: Consistent purchases from global central banks and gold ETFs continue to underpin the market.

 

Technically, MTS Gold noted that to end the short-term correction, the global price must firmly establish a base above the $4,000 level, following a profit-taking drop of more than $100 from last week's peak of $4,059.

 

 

Local Market Reaction

Today’s local market saw the price of gold jump by a massive 1,450 baht compared to yesterday's close.

 

According to the Gold Traders Association, the selling price for gold ornaments reached 65,000 baht per baht-weight, reflecting the surging global spot price of $4,142.00 per ounce.

 

Jitti noted that the sharp price increase has led to increased buying over selling, particularly for gold bars, while demand for gold ornaments remains subdued due to the high cost and economic climate.

 

The Gold Research Center further advised investors to monitor several factors this week, including key US economic reports (CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, and the Beige Book) and the uncertainty surrounding an Appeals Court ruling that deemed many of the trade tariffs imposed during the Trump administration "unlawful."