Global gold prices fall as stronger dollar and fading fed rate-cut hopes pressure market

Gold prices dropped overnight as the US dollar strengthened and expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts diminished, while investors await key US economic data scheduled later this week.

Reuters reported that spot gold fell 1.5% to US$4,019.12 per ounce at 3:13pm ET (20:13 GMT) on Monday (November 17 2025).

US gold futures for December delivery closed 0.5% lower at US$4,074.5 per ounce.

A slight rise in the US dollar index made dollar-priced bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies, adding downward pressure to gold.

David Meger, Director of Metals Trading at High Ridge Futures, said:

“The market is moving back and forth, waiting for a wave of delayed economic reports since the US government reopened. Expectations for additional Fed rate cuts have come down, which is weighing on gold sentiment.”

Investors brace for US economic data and Fed signals

This week’s economic calendar includes the September employment report on Thursday and the minutes of the Fed’s latest meeting on Wednesday, when policymakers implemented a 0.25% rate cut.

However, several Fed officials have signalled a more cautious stance on further easing at the December meeting.

CME’s FedWatch tool shows that markets currently price in only a 45% chance of another 0.25% rate cut in December — down from over 60% a week earlier.

At least four Fed officials, including Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams, are scheduled to speak today.

Gold, a non-yielding safe-haven asset, typically benefits from lower interest rates, which reduce the opportunity cost of holding bullion.

Analysts at Scotiabank expect gold prices to average US$3,800 per ounce next year, up from US$3,450 this year, citing persistent economic uncertainty and eventual declines in real interest rates.

Morning update (November 18, 2025)

Spot gold edged 0.1% higher to US$4,049.21 per ounce at 7:11am Singapore time.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3% in earlier trading.

Silver and platinum were steady, while palladium gained.

Gold has steadied after falling for three consecutive days, as expectations for a December rate cut weakened.

Bullion remains above US$4,000 per ounce, supported by cautious Fed commentary and investors awaiting delayed US data following the longest government shutdown in history.

Interest-rate swap contracts now imply less than a 50% chance of a December cut, after the Fed eased by only 0.25% less than a month ago.

Lower rates typically enhance the appeal of non-yielding gold.