Gold traders see Thailand price hitting 88,000 baht this year

Thai gold has jumped nearly 10,000 baht per baht-weight since early 2026 and crossed 75,000. MTS Gold and YLG say global prices could run to US$5,400–6,400/oz, supported by strong investor demand, ETF flows and central-bank buying.

Major gold trader MTS Gold predicts the Thai gold price could hit 88,000 baht per baht-weight this year, corresponding to a global price of US$6,400 per ounce.
Key factors driving this forecast include a loss of confidence in the US dollar, potential US Federal Reserve rate cuts, and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset from investors and central banks.
Another trader, YLG Bullion, also projects a significant rise, though to a more conservative target of US$5,400 per ounce.
The prediction follows a strong start to the year, in which Thai gold prices have already surged by nearly 10,000 baht to break above 75,000 baht.

Gold price targets

Two major gold traders expect gold prices to extend gains this year, driven by demand from investors, speculators and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Dr Kritcharat Hirunyasiri, chairman of MTS Gold Mae Thongsuk (MTS Gold), said global gold prices could climb as high as US$6,400 per ounce, which would translate to around 88,000 baht per baht-weight in Thailand (15.244 grammes), based on the current exchange rate.

Pawan Nawawattanasub, chief executive officer of YLG Bullion International Co Ltd (YLG), said prices could rise to US$5,400 per ounce.

Thai prices surge since start of 2026

Thai gold prices have remained strong since the start of 2026, rising by nearly 10,000 baht per baht-weight and breaking above 75,000 baht, in line with a sharp rally in global bullion.

Dr Kritcharat said gold’s upside this year has been stronger than previously expected, prompting MTS Gold to raise its global target to US$6,400 per ounce from an earlier view of around US$5,000.

What’s driving gold

Dr Kritcharat cited a “loss of confidence in the US dollar” as a structural tailwind, linked to US President Donald Trump’s economic and trade policies, which he said had increased pressure on trading partners and triggered broader trade retaliation, weighing on dollar sentiment.

“We are seeing a greater reduction in holdings of US government bonds and the US dollar, while many countries and investors are increasing their gold holdings as a safe-haven asset. This has pushed gold prices up significantly,” he said.

He also pointed to potential US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts as another supportive factor that has not yet been fully reflected in prices.

Market pace and revised projections

Dr Kritcharat described this year’s price action as “aggressive”. In 2025, gold took around three months to rise about 17%, but in 2026 it has moved by a similar proportion in about one month.

From the start of 2026 to the present, global gold prices have risen about 16%, while Thai gold prices are up around 12–13%, or roughly 8,000–9,000 baht per baht-weight.

MTS Gold has raised its estimate for gold’s growth this year to about 50%, in line with its new US$6,400 target.

YLG technical view and key levels

Pawan said gold remains above short-, medium- and long-term moving averages, signalling continued buying interest. As long as prices hold above support around US$4,640 per ounce, she said gold could test US$5,100–5,136 and move towards US$5,400 before a larger correction.

She warned, however, that gold is currently “overbought” on the 4-hour, daily and weekly charts, and that a weekly divergence is emerging between price and the RSI indicator — suggesting the market may pause or pull back to rebuild momentum.

If prices fall below US$4,640, she expects a correction first but still views it as a consolidation before a further rise, as long as prices remain above US$4,274 per ounce.

Demand drivers: Speculators, ETFs, China, India

YLG said profit-taking has emerged at times, largely from speculators, ETF funds and some countries. However, it expects most central banks to continue holding gold long term and remain net buyers, rather than turning into net sellers.

Pawan said the latest buying wave from late December through January has been broad-based:

COMEX speculators: In the week ending 20 January, long positions rose by 4,843 contracts to 163,668, while short positions increased by 2,144 to 26,224. Net longs stood at 137,444 contracts, equivalent to 427.53 tonnes, indicating retail demand is playing a key role.
Gold ETFs: In 2025, global gold ETFs increased holdings by 800.3 tonnes to 4,024.5 tonnes, a new record. In the first half of January, holdings rose by another 35.8 tonnes to 4,064.7 tonnes.
China: In December, 115 tonnes were withdrawn from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), up 36% month on month, as retailers built inventories ahead of Lunar New Year. China’s gold ETFs recorded inflows for a fourth straight month, adding 3.9 billion yuan (about US$545 million, or 3.8 tonnes). The PBOC bought gold for a 14th consecutive month, adding 0.9 tonne. By end-2025, China’s official reserves totalled 2,306 tonnes, or 8.5% of total FX reserves.
India: While high prices have pressured physical demand, digital gold purchases via UPI rose through 2025, with transaction value increasing from 8 billion rupees (about US$88 million) in January to 21 billion rupees (about US$231 million) in December, nearly tripling.