Myanmar's GDP will expand by 9.1 per cent, minister says
Myanmar's gross domestic product (GDP) will expand by 9.1 per cent this fiscal year and 9.2 per cent next year, pushing the average annual growth rate to 8 per cent for five years of President Thein Sein's term, according to Union Minister for National Pl
The minister made the announcement during a briefing by National Planning and Finance ministries. In the fiscal year beginning in April 2011, GDP expanded 5.6 per cent, rising to 7.3 and 8.7 per cent over the next two fiscal years, respectively, Kan Zaw said.
The World Bank, however, has forecast that GDP growth in Myanmar would be 8.5 per cent this year and next year.
“Economic growth in Myanmar, with recent institutional and policy reforms and international re-engagement, will be at 8.5 per cent this year and next,” it said in a press release on the outlook for the regional economy.
Although it said the regional growth would be above the global average, it warned of several risks.
“Significant uncertainties remain that could affect the region’s growth. High-income economies, especially in the euro zone and Japan, could face downside risks in the near term. Global financial conditions could tighten sharply, and international and regional geopolitical tensions could affect prospects,” it said. “The region also remains vulnerable to a sharp slowdown in China, which, though unlikely to happen, could hurt commodity producers especially hard,” it added.
The International Monetary Fund also forecast GDP growth in Myanmar to be 8.5 per cent this year, but warned that there were risks.
“Fiscal and external buffers remain thin and demand-side pressures on inflation and large capital inflows will strain the still-infant macroeconomic management tools,” it said in June following consultations with the government. It also warned of a lack of supervisory capacity for the financial sector.
“The expected entry of foreign banks into the already rapidly growing financial sector will place further demands on macroeconomic policy and stretch scarce supervision capacity. Fiscal risks are also rising,” it said.
Kan Zaw said the higher growth rate forecast by the two ministries was based on a number of factors, including an expected rise in foreign investment as well as more spending by telecom operators Ooredoo and Telenor to build telecom towers.
