Blind spots could be the undoing of Tsai's 'New Southbound Policy'

Negotiation parties have headed to countries in the region, notably Indonesia. In the Philippines, ministry-level economic dialogue opened for the first time in four years.

These moves come after months of a "wait and see" attitude among critics, with some observers seeing the government's promise of a pivot to Southeast Asia as a check destined to bounce.

Despite recent encouraging signs, there are clear hurdles ahead for Tsai's "New Southbound Policy" that have the potential to derail even the most meticulously planned programs.

As we look toward the ASEAN region for more mutually beneficial opportunities for bilateral cooperation, it behooves us to be aware of inconsistencies in Taiwan's policymaking and the limits in our understanding of our neighbors, who we hope to deepen relations with.

One recent incident shed light on our blind spots: The death of King Bhumibol Adulyadej of Thailand, one of the longest-reigning monarchs in history.

A Moment of Reflection

In October, the death of the Thai king — whose unifying presence saw a nation through turbulent times — prompted deep grief among Thais who had deeply venerated him. At the same time, it drew the attention of international media toward the everyday affairs and monarchy of Thailand.

"What's next?" was on the minds of the Thai people across political spectrums and of those looking towards Thailand for opportunities, including Taiwan.

This question prompted the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to invite Alan Yang, head of the Asia-Pacific studies division at National Chengchi University's Institute of International Relations (IIR), to speak at a DPP central standing committee meeting and address concerns over the potential ripple effects of the Thai king's death.

"There's no direct impact on Taiwan's plans to implement the 'New Southbound Policy' in the region," Yang told The China Post, but he offered a new question to ponder: How does the king's death shed light on how Taiwanese view Thailand or most Southeast Asian nations?

"The king's death offers an opportunity for reflection in Taiwan," Yang said, saying it could become a way to gain more understanding of diverse cultures.
This understanding is critical because Taiwan needs to know how to position itself in the Southeast Asian region, he said.

Some local media reports covering the news were either incorrect or injected too much subjective interpretation into certain aspects of Thai culture that the authors lacked an understanding of, he said.

The Thailand Trade and Economic Office in Taipei has criticized a local television news station in Taiwan, panning its coverage of King Bhumibol's passing. The report contained "incorrect information" and handled the news in a way that "disregarded the feelings of Thais" and dampened Thailand-Taiwan relations, the office said.

The Taiwan president herself made a faux pas, misspelling the word "Thailand" in her English-language condolence message penned during a visit to the office.

Yang cited Tourism Bureau statistics that showed tourism numbers from mainland China have indeed dropped, while arrivals from Thailand and Vietnam have jumped by 50 to 60 percent.

As Taiwan comes into greater contact with visitors from Southeast Asia, Taiwan's lack of understanding of their guests' culture could hurt their countries' relationship, he said.

Another issue that arose after King Bhumibol's death was how the crown prince's ascension could prolong the democratic transition in Thailand.

From the perspective of Western powers, a protracted ascension meant the kingdom was at higher risk of becoming an established military dictatorship.

If democracy in Thailand is delayed, Yang said, ripple effects could be seen in its relationship with Japan, mainland China and the U.S.

Opportunities for Taiwan

Despite seemingly low public expectations — and critics' barely-contained enthusiasm for leaping upon any mishap the Tsai administration encounters — there is hope ahead for Tsai's "New Southbound Policy."

Yang noted that ASEAN nations were optimistic about the prospect of more participation from "external powers" — perhaps even Taiwan — in their regional affairs.

ASEAN leaders moved to adopt the "Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity 2025" at the 2016 ASEAN Summit in Laos, which would focus on sustainable infrastructure, digital innovation, seamless logistics, regulatory excellence and people mobility.

"If you look at the chairman's statement No. 113, you'd see that ASEAN nations can feel the importance of external powers' dialogue relations with them, specifically Japan, the U.S., and China," Yang said.

For the ASEAN Connectivity 2025 to bear results, ASEAN would aim to invite these "external powers" to participate in its plan.

Taiwan, if it can do so without triggering Beijing's ire, may find itself with new opportunities to collaborate with ASEAN members via economic and social avenues, according to Yang.
Allocating Resources for Maximum Leverage

Providing his personal interpretation of Tsai's "New Southbound Policy," Yang said the strategy was currently still in the second stage of preparation, with Premier Lin Chuan leading government agencies in taking inventory of resources and manpower.

Without such an inventory, Taiwan would have no understanding of its strengths and weaknesses in its campaign to stake out a position in the Southeast Asia region, he said.

The details of resource allocation and utilization would largely depend on the direction the "New Southbound Policy" takes.

For example, should Taiwan seek to develop cross-border eCommerce or smart lifestyle and smart city technology, it should look to foster business collaborations in Malaysia and Thailand, as both countries already have strong basic infrastructure and laws in place.

If Taiwan chooses to pursue growth in agriculture and capacity building, countries like Laos or Cambodia might instead be the ticket, Yang said.

If Taiwan wants to court large markets, it should target Indonesia, home to much of the population in the ASEAN region.

But the real challenges lay in the stage that follows "preparation work," he said.

Pivoting to Southeast Asia's society and business ecology requires Taiwan to come up with "joint" projects that can benefit the development of the local area.

Heading South

As part of the "New Southbound Policy," a delegation led by Vice Economics Minister Yang Wei-fu went to Southeast Asia countries in a bid to lower potential policy obstacles.

Yang recently told the Central News Agency that the delegation had sought to implement the Economics Ministry's plans under the "New Southbound Policy" framework: strengthening bilateral trade investment, collaboration in small- and medium-sized enterprises, industry, eCommerce marketing and talent cultivation.

"Southeast Asian countries are optimistic about Taiwan's 'New Southbound Policy,'" Yang said.

"They hope that we can roll out more detailed and concrete measures so they can determine whether there are cooperation opportunities."