ASEAN Summit: Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize bid takes centre stage

The ASEAN Summit, held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, from October 26 to 28, 2025, could serve as a platform either to accelerate or delay efforts to expel Cambodian settlers from three disputed areas in Thailand’s sovereignty in Sa Kaeo Province.

According to the South China Morning Post, US President Donald Trump has requested a ceremony for the signing of a "Thailand-Cambodia Peace Agreement" during the ASEAN Summit, aiming to bolster his image as a peace leader and strengthen his legitimacy as a nominee for the Nobel Peace Prize.

Previously, Donald Trump had suspended trade negotiations with Thailand and Cambodia following a violent border conflict in early August 2025, which lasted five days and resulted in numerous casualties. This raised pressure on both countries to reach an agreement to cease hostilities, with Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, as ASEAN chair, acting as a mediator.

However, tensions along the Thailand-Cambodia border remain unresolved, with both militaries maintaining heavy troop presence in the area. Both governments face significant pressure from their citizens not to compromise on territorial issues.

Currently, the situation in Sa Kaeo remains tense, and Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul convened a meeting of the National Security Council (NSC) on October 3. The meeting brought together armed forces commanders and relevant agencies to discuss the issue.

The NSC assigned the Royal Thai Army Headquarters to examine the application of laws against Cambodian nationals who have encroached on Thai sovereignty in three areas in Sa Kaeo: Ban Nong Jan, Ban Nong Ya Kaeo in Khok Sung District and in Ta Phraya District, involving over 200 households.

Gen Ukrit Boontanon, Commander-in-Chief of the Royal Thai Armed Forces, held a special meeting with top military leaders, including Gen Pana Claewplodtook, Commander of the Royal Thai Army; Adm Phairoj Fueangchan, Commander of the Royal Thai Navy; ACM Sekson Kantha, Commander of the Royal Thai Air Force; and Pol Gen Kitrat Phanphet, Commissioner of the Royal Thai Police.

The meeting resulted in approval for three measures to address the issue of Cambodian encroachment:

1. To enforce the Martial Law Act of 1914 and other relevant laws as applicable, to ensure both efficiency and strict compliance.
2. The Army Operations Centre is tasked with creating an operational plan, standard operating procedures, and rules for the use of force in accordance with international human rights laws and Thai law.
3. The Ministry of the Interior, the Royal Thai Police, and other relevant authorities, including local forces, are to support military efforts in implementing these actions.

The Martial Law Act is already enforced in border areas, granting the military authority over civilian officials in matters related to military operations, suppression, or maintaining public order, as follows:

• Search Powers (Section 9): Military personnel have the authority to search individuals, vehicles, residences, buildings, or any location at any time. This includes searching for prohibited items, items to be confiscated, or items held illegally. It also grants the military the right to monitor communications such as news, letters, telegrams, parcels, and other materials sent to or from areas where martial law is in effect, as well as printed materials, newspapers, images, and advertisements.
• Conscription Powers (Section 10): The military has the authority to conscript citizens to assist military forces in defending the nation or aiding military operations. Additionally, they may conscript vehicles, animals, food supplies, weapons, and other tools required by the military at the time.
• Prohibitions (Section 11): The military can prohibit gatherings, the distribution of printed materials, newspapers, advertisements, and the holding of performances. It can also prevent the use of public roads for traffic, the possession or use of communication devices or weapons, and the use of materials that could harm people, animals, plants, or property.
• Additionally, individuals may be prohibited from leaving their residences within a specified timeframe, and individuals may be required to leave a designated area if military personnel deem it necessary for military operations, suppression, or public order. If a ban is imposed, individuals in that area must leave within the prescribed time. The Minister of Defence may also specify activities or items prohibited during the enforcement of martial law.
• Seizure Powers (Section 12): The military may seize items obtained through searches, conscription, or prohibitions temporarily to prevent them from benefiting the enemy or for the military’s use.
• Accommodation Powers (Section 13): The military has the authority to occupy any location deemed beneficial for military operations.
• Destruction or Alteration of Locations (Section 14): In times of war or combat with enemies, the military has the authority to burn homes and items that would benefit the enemy, as well as things that hinder combat. The military also has the power to create strongholds, alter landscapes, or modify villages and cities for military defence or combat preparations.
• Expulsion Powers (Section 15): If there is suspicion or necessity, the military can expel individuals without permanent residence who are temporarily residing in a locality.
• Detention Powers (Section 15 Bis): If there is reasonable suspicion that an individual is an enemy or has violated the Martial Law Act or military orders, the military may detain that person for questioning or as required for military purposes, but the detention must not exceed seven days.

One reason the military is enforcing Martial Law is to provide 100% protection for government officials, preventing legal actions or criminal charges for acts related to military operations.

In contrast, the Forest Act and the Immigration Act open the possibility for individuals to file claims for damages against officials in cases of home demolitions or destruction of property.

In addition, the process of bringing detainees into Thailand's justice system can take many years before a case is concluded. For example, if 500 individuals are arrested, the authorities must arrange detention facilities, which becomes a significant burden on Thai officials. This contrasts with martial law, where detainees can be immediately deported from the country.

Although the "Eastern Forces" of the 1st Army Area have yet to set a specific date for their operation, everything depends on the situation on the ground, including favourable factors and the global political climate.

The upcoming ASEAN Summit at the end of October is a major event where leaders from various countries will be in attendance. In Thailand's case, Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul is under scrutiny, as the issue between Thailand and Cambodia may be raised during discussions.

It must be acknowledged that Cambodia is aiming to create a situation along the border in Sa Kaeo that escalates into violence, particularly targeting the loss of Cambodian civilian lives, to present it on the international stage.

Thus, the situation has not yet reached a breaking point, as political events must unfold and wait for Prime Minister Anutin's appearance at the international platform before a resolution.

However, a sudden shift in the situation could occur on October 10, according to Colonel Chainarong Kasi, commander of the Aranyaprathet Special Task Force, Burapa Task Force, 1st Army Operations Centre. He reports that there may be a mobilisation of Cambodian citizens, including children, women, and the elderly, to approach the Thai barbed-wire fence once again, intending to show the international observers (IOT).

Meanwhile, Thai supporters are focusing on October 10, uniting to offer encouragement to soldiers in the field to push Cambodian settlers out of the area. If the situation escalates uncontrollably, military action could take place before the ASEAN Summit. 

It will be crucial to monitor how the situation develops and in what form the operation will occur.