Border tensions flare at Chong Bok as Thai election nears

Cambodia is being portrayed as “backed into a corner” and seeking to regain leverage along the Thai–Cambodian border by stirring tensions at strategic points during Thailand’s election period, as the ceasefire remains fragile despite a temporary lull.

The latest flashpoint was Chong Bok in Nam Yuen district, Ubon Ratchathani, where Thailand said a mortar round landed near Hill 469 on January 6, 2026, wounding one Thai soldier. The incident occurred while both countries were operating under a ceasefire framework — and Thai commentary argues it followed a familiar pattern: “fire first, then call to negotiate”.

Chong Bok: a recurring trigger point

Chong Bok was also described as the starting point of an earlier round of clashes, after Thai troops came under fire while on patrol. That exchange reportedly lasted about 10 minutes before Cambodian commanders contacted Thai counterparts to seek a halt.

In the latest case, Cambodian commanders reportedly contacted Thai officers before any retaliation, describing the incident as a mistake and saying there was no intention to fire into Thai territory. Thai forces, the account said, warned that it must not happen again.

The article argues the incident was not accidental but deliberate — framed as an attempt to “check coordinates” and the effective range around Thai positions in case of a future flare-up. It notes that firing a mortar involves multiple steps — including setting the angle and range — suggesting intent rather than error.

Anutin meets defence and NSC officials

Caretaker Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, who is also interior minister, met Defence Minister and National Security Council secretary-general at Government House to assess the situation before a cabinet meeting.

The preliminary conclusion, the account said, was to use existing mechanisms involving the Foreign Ministry, Defence Ministry, the Army and local-level channels, including the Second Army Area, to issue a formal protest, demand an explanation and seek an apology.

If local talks fail to stabilise the situation under the ceasefire agreed on December 27, 2025, the article says a hotline channel exists between the two defence ministers and the two countries’ armed forces commanders. If necessary, senior representatives from both sides could visit the area jointly to resolve the issue.

Anutin reportedly did not convene a formal NSC meeting, arguing that would “escalate” the situation, but he stressed that the military should respond under rules of engagement if there is a repeat, describing the incident as a clear ceasefire breach.

He was quoted as saying Thailand is seeking a diplomatic explanation, has prepared its steps, and is acting within the framework of existing agreements — but would respond if it becomes necessary. He also said provincial administration has been told to look after residents, while insisting the situation has not reached the stage where evacuations are needed.

Army warning: restraint, but readiness to respond

Army spokesperson Maj Gen Winthai Suvaree was quoted as saying Thai units have warned Cambodia to exercise caution, and that if a similar incident happens again, Thailand may need to respond for self-defence in proportionate measure. He said the army remains ready with contingency plans to protect sovereignty and ensure the safety of lives and property along the border, while maintaining close monitoring.

Ceasefire remains fragile, both sides reinforce positions

The account says the ceasefire remains fragile because both sides are adjusting tactics and strengthening positions for a scenario that could flare up at any time. It claims Cambodia has been repairing supply routes damaged during clashes and using drones to monitor Thai positions.

Thailand is described as still able to control the situation in the short term, with the overall picture “quiet”, but with a need for heightened vigilance in sensitive areas and key strategic points to prevent unnecessary escalation.

Strategic locations named include: Chong Bok and Chong An Ma (Ubon Ratchathani); Chong Chom, Chong Pror, Chong Raye, Prasat Khana, Hill 350, Prasat Ta Kwai, Chong Krang and Prasat Ta Muen Thom (Surin); and the Preah Vihear line, Phu Makua, the Chong Don Ao line, Phlan Yao and Phlan Hin Paet Kon (Si Sa Ket). The article says these areas are currently under Thai control, referencing a 1:50,000 map.

Diplomacy and the JBC timing

Cambodia is described as pushing for a meeting of the Thailand–Cambodia Joint Boundary Commission (JBC) and for faster border surveys under the MOU 43 framework, which the article says Cambodia hopes to use to pressure Thailand into pulling forces out of disputed areas and freezing changes on the ground until demarcation is clear.

However, it argues Thailand’s caretaker status constrains the ability to hold a JBC meeting, and that progress would likely depend on the post-election government setting policy and a negotiating approach.

The piece concludes that “fire first, then negotiate” remains the playbook Cambodia uses to create pressure and seek advantage — and that the key question is how Thailand manages the risk during this sensitive political transition.