GISTDA warns super El Niño could bring drought, food shock
GISTDA warned a possible super El Niño could trigger severe drought, food inflation, wildfires and a PM2.5 crisis in Thailand and ASEAN
Thailand’s Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency, or GISTDA, has warned that a possible “super El Niño” could trigger severe climate disruption across Thailand and the wider ASEAN region, bringing heightened risks of drought, food insecurity, soaring agricultural prices and a worsening PM2.5 crisis. GISTDA said the region could face much greater volatility than under a normal El Niño event if the phenomenon intensifies.
According to information posted by GISTDA, a normal El Niño already tends to bring hotter and drier conditions. But if it strengthens into a super El Niño, with sea-surface temperatures rising more than 1.5-2 degrees Celsius above average, the effects on climate systems, the economy and people’s daily lives could become much more severe. The agency said clearer signs may begin to emerge in early May 2026.
GISTDA said one of the most serious risks would be a drought crisis caused by lower rainfall and longer dry spells. This could sharply reduce water levels in natural sources and reservoirs, with direct consequences for household consumption, agriculture and industry.
The agency also warned of heavy damage to agriculture and food security. Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia, all major food-producing countries, could see lower output in crops such as rice, sugar and palm oil. That, in turn, could lead to supply shortages and push agricultural and food prices higher, both regionally and globally.
Another major concern is the risk of wildfires and transboundary haze. GISTDA said extremely hot and dry weather would make fires more likely, especially in Indonesia’s peat forests and in agricultural areas in neighbouring countries. This could intensify cross-border smoke pollution and drive PM2.5 pollution to critical levels, with serious health effects across the region.
The agency further warned of heatwaves, saying temperatures could rise to record levels and pose greater health risks, particularly for vulnerable groups. At the same time, electricity demand for cooling could surge, raising concerns over energy security.
On preparedness, GISTDA highlighted the role of space technology and geo-informatics in helping the government monitor conditions and respond more quickly. It said proactive planning would be essential to limiting losses if a super El Niño does occur.
The agency outlined four key response measures.
First, it called for proactive water management, including public campaigns to save water, storing as much rainwater as possible and prioritising water for household use while securing backup supplies.
Second, it urged agricultural adaptation, including support for low-water and short-cycle crops, adjusted planting schedules based on rainfall forecasts and crop insurance.
Third, GISTDA called for stronger ASEAN cooperation and stricter implementation of the regional agreement on transboundary haze pollution in order to curb open burning and forest fires.
Fourth, it said public health systems should be prepared to handle heat-related illness, including heatstroke, as well as respiratory diseases linked to PM2.5 pollution.
GISTDA said a super El Niño is a natural hazard that cannot be stopped, but its impact can be reduced significantly with strong preparation. It added that coordinated action by the government, the public and the full use of space technology would be crucial in helping Thailand and ASEAN get through a possible climate crisis.
