Super El Niño could bring severe drought to ASEAN and push 2027 to record heat

Meteorologists around the world are closely monitoring the El Niño event expected to develop this year, which may become so intense that it evolves into a “Super El Niño”. 

Climate models are beginning to show changes in ocean currents and wind patterns across the Pacific, with the potential to trigger enormous knock-on effects on global weather and lead to severe natural disasters in many regions.

Super El Niño looks certain

In scientific terms, El Niño is classified as a “Super El Niño” when sea surface temperatures in key parts of the equatorial Pacific rise at least 2.0 degrees Celsius above the normal average. This does not happen often, occurring on average once every 10 to 15 years. 

When it does, the effects are typically more severe, longer-lasting and more widespread across the world than those of an ordinary El Niño.

Under normal conditions, strong trade winds push warm water from the eastern Pacific towards the west. But when El Niño develops, those winds weaken or reverse direction, allowing warm water to flow back eastwards towards the coast of South America instead. 

This year, however, unusually powerful westerly wind bursts have acted like a forceful push, driving masses of warm water rapidly and in larger volumes into the eastern Pacific, potentially making El Niño much stronger and turning it into a Super El Niño.

Tom Di Liberto, a former meteorologist at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), said that the vast amount of heat stored beneath the ocean during La Niña is released rapidly into the atmosphere once El Niño develops, much like lifting the lid off a boiling pot. 

This causes the global average temperature to surge sharply over a short period.

In addition, the Super El Niño expected this year is likely to be more severe than in the past because of human-induced climate change. Eric Webb, a meteorologist at the US Department of Defence, explained that the accumulation of greenhouse gases means the Earth’s climate system can no longer shed the heat released by each El Niño event quickly enough.

This causes global temperatures to rise in steps, with each new El Niño pushing the baseline average higher still. As a result, the 2026-27 Super El Niño may release more heat than the events of 1997-98 or 2015-16.

Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather forecasts that the boost from this Super El Niño will continue to drive up global temperatures, with a high chance that 2027 will become the hottest year ever recorded, surpassing 2024.

This is in line with the view of climate scientist Daniel Swain, who said current signals point to a strong to very strong El Niño, which would lead to more frequent heatwaves across the globe.

Impacts around the world

Super El Niño is expected to disrupt weather patterns worldwide, especially in Southeast Asia and Australia, which are likely to face severe and prolonged drought. 

Lower-than-normal rainfall will directly affect food security and agricultural output, particularly in countries such as Indonesia, Vietnam and Papua New Guinea, which have previously suffered heavy damage from El Niño events. 

Extremely dry conditions will also raise the risk of large-scale wildfires that are much harder to control.

 By contrast, parts of South America, such as Peru and Ecuador, are expected to experience unusually heavy rainfall and flash floods. This is because much warmer sea surface temperatures cause massive evaporation and the formation of large rain clouds near the coast. 

Southern US states and areas along the Gulf of Mexico are also likely to see increased rainfall and a higher flood risk during winter.

At the same time, Super El Niño creates what is known as wind shear in the atmosphere over the Atlantic Ocean, which disrupts the formation and development of hurricanes, resulting in fewer storms. 

The opposite applies in the Pacific, where warmer ocean waters are expected to fuel more frequent and more intense typhoons affecting Hawaii, the Philippines, China and Japan.

Meanwhile, Super El Niño is a major cause of widespread coral bleaching, as sea temperatures rise beyond the limits that corals can tolerate. 

Large numbers of fish and marine animals may also die because the cold, nutrient-rich waters off the coast of South America disappear, disrupting the marine food chain and affecting the fishing industry and regional economies.

Although many signs point to a Super El Niño becoming highly likely, experts still warn that forecasting remains uncertain because of the so-called “spring prediction barrier”. 

Michelle L’Heureux, NOAA’s lead forecaster, said that model accuracy in the early part of the year is often lower than it is by June. She cited 2014 as an example, when models predicted a major El Niño that ultimately failed to materialise because the westerly wind bursts suddenly stalled.

Preparing for a Super El Niño requires continuous readiness and close monitoring. Governments and relevant agencies need to use advance forecasts to assess risks and plan disaster mitigation measures. 

Water resource management is the most urgent priority in drought-prone areas, while flood-prone regions must ensure drainage systems and evacuation plans are ready to cope with rainfall that may be far heavier than expected.

The agricultural sector is likely to be the hardest hit and most directly affected. Farmers should be supported with information to help adjust planting calendars or choose crop varieties that can withstand extreme weather. 

In major urban areas, authorities must also prepare for heatwaves, which may affect public health, particularly among vulnerable groups such as the elderly and children, as this year’s heat is expected to be more intense and longer-lasting than normal.

Global climate change has made El Niño more complex and harder to predict. The differing impacts seen in each region, such as drought in India but possibly heavy rainfall in California, reflect the interconnected nature of the global climate system. 

For that reason, building international cooperation networks to share data and resources is essential in confronting this challenge.

Ultimately, while we may not be able to stop a Super El Niño from happening, understanding its causes and likely effects can help us adapt and reduce losses more effectively. 

Expert views and close monitoring of climate models will be key to guiding the world through the looming heat disaster. Awareness of the problem and preparedness from today onwards remain the best defence humanity has against the increasingly severe volatility of nature.