Energy update: Oil nears US$100 as Thai oil fund deficit widens

Global oil prices are moving back towards the US$100-a-barrel mark as fragile hopes for a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran continue to fade, keeping markets on edge over the Strait of Hormuz and the risk of prolonged disruption to one of the world’s most important energy routes.

In its energy situation report dated April 10, 2026, Thailand’s Energy Ministry said global crude prices had risen sharply again, with WTI closing up US$3.46 at US$97.87 a barrel, Brent settling at US$95.92, and Dubai crude standing at about US$104.

The ministry said the rebound reflected deep market scepticism over the temporary ceasefire arrangement between Washington and Tehran, which remains highly fragile. At the same time, tensions across the Middle East have shown little sign of easing, particularly as Iran continues to block and tightly control movement through the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global energy shipments.

Analysts at major financial institutions have warned that if the conflict drags on and the strait does not return to normal operations, crude prices could break above US$100 a barrel and stay there through the end of this year.

Despite the external pressure, Thailand’s domestic oil position remains stable for now. Based on data as of April 10, the country has enough oil to meet demand for about 110 days. That total comprises 25 days of legally required reserves, 23 days of commercial reserves, 31 days of oil currently in transit, and another 31 days of confirmed supply already secured.

The report also showed that diesel production and sales remain above current demand levels. Based on figures from April 8, Thailand produced 83.23 million litres of diesel and sold 64.74 million litres.

Using PTT reference prices, the ministry listed Thailand’s domestic retail prices as follows: diesel (B7) at THB48.40 per litre, diesel (B20) at THB43.40, benzine (E20) at THB38.95, gasohol 95 at THB43.95 and gasohol 91 at THB43.58.

The ministry also noted that Thailand’s retail fuel prices remain below those seen in several ASEAN countries. Thai gasohol 95 was priced at THB43.95 per litre, compared with THB49.67 to THB86.02 in Cambodia, the Philippines, Laos, Myanmar and Singapore. Thai diesel stood at THB48.40 per litre, while prices in Cambodia, Malaysia, Laos, the Philippines, Myanmar and Singapore ranged from THB55.27 to THB117.72 per litre.

Even so, the pressure on Thailand’s Oil Fuel Fund continues to build. As of April 10, the fund was estimated to be in deficit by THB59.4478 billion, with diesel compensation alone running at around THB520.70 million a day.